The Cooper Kupp prop market has been a fairly dangerous place to live since his triple crown season in 2021. Matthew Stafford broadcast the secret to the world that Kupp was one of the most underrated receivers in the league. He’s spent the last five seasons doing so.
Kupp is slated to return to his first NFL action since he injured his ankle in Week 2. The stakes couldn’t be higher for the 2-5 Rams, who are at the center of plenty of trade rumors as we creep toward the deadline.
I think the Rams’ situation might give us a bit of clarity into their gameplan, such that I’m fairly confident there’s actually some value in tomorrow night’s prop bets for Cooper Kupp.
Best Cooper Kupp prop bets for Rams vs. Vikings on Thursday Night Football
Cooper Kupp +14.5 H2H Receiving Yards (vs. Justin Jefferson)
I actually like this one quite a bit. If you search Kupp on DraftKings Sportsbook, this will be one of the first props on his player page.
I’m not feeling quite spicy enough for the Moneyline, there, as Justin Jefferson can break this bet with one over-the-top play. And, unfortunately, scrappy though they are, the Rams secondary is susceptible to over the top plays.
But what Jefferson has in home-run capability, Cooper Kupp has in reliability. Sam Darnold is a heck of a lot better a quarterback than many of us gave him credit for, but he’s still probably going to be a bit hesitant to force too many tight-window throws to Jefferson, especially in a primetime game. In October. When he has a history of seeing ghosts…
This is a must-win game for the Rams. Jordan Whittington, who was active for Sunday’s game but only played nine snaps, is inactive. That’s odd enough to mean something with regards to the potential of Matthew Stafford force-feeding Kupp until he’s at 130+ yards. I don’t expect Justin Jefferson to clear 145-150 tomorrow night.
Cooper Kupp OVER 71.5 receiving yards
Kupp has only played against the Vikings twice in his career.
His stat lines in those games:
- 2021 (with Stafford at QB): 13 targets, ten receptions, 103 yards; one carry for four yards
- 2019 (with Jared Goff at QB): 11 targets, nine receptions, 162 yards, two touchdowns
I’m going to bet Kupp’s third game against the Vikings as a Ram is going to look awfully similar, statistically, to his first two.
+110 is really not that inviting for an Anytime TD scorer when you’re evaluating the market, but it’s not altogether all that bad if you feel like Kupp’s as sure a thing to score a touchdown. In 32 games played with Matthew Stafford, Kupp has 22 games with at least one touchdown.
+110 with a 66% history of this bet hitting isn’t all that bad. But what might be even better …
Cooper Kupp 2+ TDs +750
… is swinging for the fences! Make no mistake, the Rams sure will be. This is going to be about the most gritty effort we’ll see out of the Rams since, *checks notes*, Matthew Stafford’s comeback win against the 49ers.
I wrote about what to expect from Kupp’s return from a fantasy football perspective here. A relevant excerpt for his prop market:
Expect McVay and Stafford to go as deep in their bag as they’ve gone in a while. Kyren Williams is going to eat, and other receivers like Tutu Atwell and Colby Parkinson will get theirs, too.
So, too, will Cooper Kupp. On their post-Week-8 run in 2023, when they had to essentially win out to be competitive, Matthew Stafford threw the ball an average of 34.7 times per game. This year, he’s averaging just under 25 attempts per game. His offensive line is not fully healthy yet, but it’s getting healthier. He’ll clear 25 attempts tomorrow night with ease.
Encouraging stat: in Week 1 against the Lions, when Stafford last had his full compliment of offensive weapons and was working with a gameplan that featured his entire offensive line, he threw the ball 49 times. I honestly would not be surprised if Stafford eclipses 40 passing attempts tomorrow night.
If Stafford throws that much, two passing touchdowns for Cooper Kupp is worth at least half a unit.
One last thing!
Oh, by the way—I’ve already locked in this bet for myself on the DKNetwork Betting Group, where myself and my colleagues are betting across all sports and markets 24/7. You can tail our bets there, too; I just, last Sunday, had an Anytime TD parlay at 110-1 odds hit with 61 folks backing it in this group. Come tag along for the fun.
You can tail my Cooper Kupp bet by clicking this link, and make your way to the DKN Betting Group by clicking this one.
Go Nine and Dime.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is daniel_johnson09) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
