It’s a pretty difficult week in college football, so it’ll likely result in a shorter card for me. I actually like a couple of Friday night games, which we’ll focus on below, as well as one on Saturday afternoon. I put these out earlier in the week, so numbers may have shifted a bit, but I’ll discuss what I’d play the number to. Maybe I’ll warm up to more plays on Saturday and add, but for now, here’s what we’re looking at for CFB Week 9.
Louisville at Boston College +7.5 (-110) – 1-unit
This is just a really tough sandwich spot for Louisville, playing on Friday night in Chestnut Hill between two massive games. The Cardinals fell short in their biggest game of the year to date, running out of gas in a shootout against Miami last week. Now they have to go on the road to BC on a short week, where the Eagles will come in with a two-day rest advantage since they last played on Thursday night at Virginia Tech.
Louisville is also looking forward to a big one next week, where it is already priced as a double-digit dog at Clemson. Easy spot to overlook Boston College here, who is coming off a beatdown by the Hokies, and has had plenty of time to think about it. Give me the Eagles to keep this one within a touchdown, and have a chance to win outright. Play down to +7.
Boise State ML (-130) at UNLV – 1-unit
One of the games of the week in college football comes to us Friday night from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. This one doesn’t just have massive Mountain West implications, but it could ultimately play a role in who lands in the College Football Playoff from the Group of Five.
Both teams have been terrific this season, but we did see the Rebels drop an important home game to Syracuse in a hangover spot.The Broncos come in rolling, and performed exceptionally well in their other big road test this season — a three-point loss at Oregon. Ashton Jeanty and Boise State have proven to be able to hang around with the big dogs. I’m not sure UNLV has done that. As long as Boise is locked in for this one, I like them to get out of Vegas with a huge win. Play to -150 ML or -3 on the spread.
Arkansas at Mississippi State +7 (-120) – 1.5-units
I was on Arkansas last week to pull the home upset over LSU. The Hogs threw up an airball in a costly loss as it pertains to the availability of some of their best players. Taylen Green likely played banged up through a knee injury, and did not have a good game. He’s not on the injury report this week, but as a mobile quarterback, it’s still an issue to watch.
Ja’Quinden Jackson was only to carry the ball five times against LSU, and after his departure, the Hogs lost a ton on offense. He’s expected to miss this game, and his backup Rodney Hill is listed as questionable. It could be a thin backfield for the Hogs in a game that they’d like to really rely on the ground game.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State has quietly been playing well above expectations against the nation’s elite. The Bulldogs are off three straight games against Texas, Georgia and Texas A&M. That’s a really tough stretch, and yet they managed to go 3-0 ATS in that span, covering by over 16 points per game.
BYU at UCF ML (-135) – 1-unit
BYU is off another extremely fortunate victory, and at some point the bubble is going to burst. UCF is off some tough losses and the most desperate team here. I’d say BYU is nowhere near as good as its record, while UCF is better than its record. Tough road trip for BYU here heading to Orlando to play in some heat. I like the home team to pull the “upset” after being bet from the dog to favorite.
Oklahoma State +7 (-115) at Baylor – 1-unit
The Cowboys almost pulled the upset over BYU last week, but came undone in crunch time once again. This defense is really bad, but as OK State did in Provo, I think they can hang around at Waco and have a chance to pull out the win.
LSU at Texas A&M ML (-115) – 1-unit
Both of these teams continue to pull out impressive SEC victories. LSU is on its second straight road game and in a lookahead spot to Alabama next week. With this number moving down close to a pick’em, I’ll back the Aggies at home. This will be a tough defense to go on the road and face for the Tigers, and A&M should be able to move the ball enough.
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