To start Week 8 of the NFL season, the 5-1 Vikings travel to SoFi Stadium for a primetime showdown with the 2-4 Rams. Despite the difference in records between these two teams, Minnesota is a modest 2.5-point favorite. Thursday’s game could be a shootout; DraftKings Sportsbook has the over/under at 48 points.
Although Los Angeles managed to win two games without star wideout Cooper Kupp, his imminent return on Thursday is a boon for the entire offense. Over their last three games, the Rams averaged just 194.3 passing yards per game, 12th-fewest in football. With his favorite target back, expect more gaudy numbers from quarterback Matthew Stafford, who has never been shy about feeding certain players the ball.
There’s no question that LA’s passing game will revolve around Kupp this week, even if his snap count is somewhat limited. During the 31-year-old’s four-game absence, none of the remaining Rams receivers emerged as a go-to guy for Stafford, with Tutu Atwell as a slight exception. In fact, Kupp’s 27 total targets in Weeks 1 and 2 still rank third on the team, behind only Atwell and tight end Colby Parkinson.
The Vikings have become one of the league’s top defenses under coordinator Brian Flores, but their ultra-aggressive style could play into Los Angeles’ favor. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, since 2021 Stafford has completed 66.7% of all passes against the blitz when Kupp is on the field. The QB’s CPOE (completion percentage over expected) in those situations also jumped from -8.2% without Kupp to +1.2% with him. Minnesota has blitzed on 42.9% of dropbacks, the second-highest rate in football.
It won’t be easy against a high-quality defensive unit, but there’s no quarterback-receiver duo I’d trust more than Stafford and Kupp. The Rams have struggled in the red zone this season, only throwing for two touchdowns inside the 20. However, that only adds to their dependence on Kupp, who should see his normal 10+ target workload. At plus money, the veteran wide receiver is a good bet to find the end zone.
The Play: Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown at +110
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