The PGA TOUR heads to Japan this week for the Zozo Championship. This week’s event is a 78-man field with no cutline. Although, for Pick6 lineups, we will be making round-by-round lineups, so the overall structure of the event isn’t important. But, it’s good to keep in mind that all players will play four rounds this week.
The event will be played at Narashino Country Club. Here are some highlights and important notes about the course for this week:
- This is the sixth season that the Zozo Championship is being played on the PGA TOUR. The event has been played at Narashino all seasons except in 2020 (when it was played in CA).
- The past three years have seen winning scores in the 14-15 under-par range. Wind and cooler weather can affect scoring at this venue.
- The course plays as a 7,079-yard, par 70. It has tighter, tree-lined fairways that require players to club down on a lot of holes.
- 2023 winner Collin Morikawa was third in GIR and second in putts per GIR last season.
- The venue has harder-to-hit greens and fairways, with low driving accuracy and GIR numbers (below PGA TOUR average).
- The easier bentgrass greens produce fewer three-putts than we normally see at a PGA TOUR event. These greens have helped poorer putters outperform on the greens at this event in the past.
For round one, the weather doesn’t look overly daunting, as conditions look mostly calm and pleasant. Expect better scoring on Day 1, with Day 2 looking more daunting with cooler weather and heavier winds.
With that in mind, let’s get to the picks and see where our best edges sit for round one.
Sahith Theegala Less Than 68.5 Strokes
Theegala is a player I’m quite bullish on this week. His last two starts on the PGA TOUR have seen him gain multiple strokes on approach. He’s also been solid off tee, gaining 3.0 strokes OTT at the tighter Silverado setup in September. Theegala can often get himself in trouble with the driver. As such, courses where he’s forced to club down off the tee have been good for him.
On top of grabbing T2 finishes at TPC River Highlands (2023) and Hilton Head (2024), he also finished T5 at this venue in 2022 — in what was his first trip to the course. Coming off a confidence-boosting third-place finish at the TOUR Championship in August, it’s hard to think we won’t see Theegala win again soon. His round-one prop is sitting at just 68.5 (and a full stroke above the top players in the field). So, we only need him to shoot 2-under to come through. With scoring conditions looking solid, this feels like the correct call on a player coming in with lots of momentum.
Matt Kuchar Less Than 69.5 Strokes
I’m also looking to take the less on Kuchar’s total in round one, which is set even higher than Theegala’s. Kuchar has been trending upwards over the last couple of months. He enters this event having gained strokes on approach now in eight of his last nine PGA TOUR starts. That consistency aside, he’s also posted good results of late. He’s coming off a T16 at the Shriners, where he handled the windy conditions well and shot four rounds of 2-under par or better.
Kuchar doesn’t have a ton of course history to fall back on this week. But, he’s trending extremely well statistically, ranking seventh in SG: APP and first in GIR gained over the last 24 rounds. With this play set high, I don’t see much, if any reason to be bearish on him for round one. Even if he regresses a little with his irons, his putter and short game could still save him and get him in at 1-under or better.
Rickie Fowler More Than 3.5 Birdies or Better
Fowler has put together a couple of solid starts in a row now, finishing T16 at the Sanderson last month and T23 at the Shriners last week. He has been striking the ball well, but what’s more important is the fact that he’s been scoring when given the chance. Fowler comes into this week’s event having produced at least 4.0 birdies in each of his eight competitive rounds played in the fall swing.
Narashino is a tougher setup but it still contains three par 5s and also has a couple of shorter par 3s, which will produce good birdie chances for players hitting their irons well. Fowler gained 3.2 strokes on approach last week at the Shriners. With him also having played well at Narashino in the past (second in 2022), it’s hard not to think that he won’t outperform this meager 3.5 total in round one — which is set a full stroke lower than the totals we saw on Fowler and the rest of the field in Vegas last week.
Sungjae Im Less Than 68.5 strokes
If you’re looking to create Pick6 cards with more than three players on them for round one, I see no reason not to continue to look to players to potentially overperform on the first day. One player who always seems to come out of the gate ready to go is Im, who enters this week’s event having shot 2-under par or better in six of his last eight first rounds on the PGA TOUR.
Im hasn’t played yet this fall on the PGA TOUR, but he did play well at the Presidents Cup, BMW Championship (T11) and TOUR Championship (T7). He’ll be playing the Zozo Championship for the fifth time in his career, and he finished T3 at Narashino in his first visit to the course in 2019, then T12 last season. With his 68.5 round one prop below the likes of Morikawa and Xander Schauffele (who have 67.5 totals for round one), it makes perfect sense to play the discount and back Im to go for 68 strokes or fewer on the first day.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recomm
