The NBA is officially back. The Celtics will raise Banner 18 to the rafters before facing a talented Knicks team, in what could easily be an Eastern Conference Finals preview. As you would expect, the Celtics have been taking significant money as the game approaches, which you can track on our betting splits on DK Network. I do lean to the Boston side, but it’ll also be an emotional night for this team. I could see a slow start, and potentially getting on the C’s in-game if the situation is right.
But given what I think Boston’s early season rotation will look like, I do think we have a couple of player props we can take advantage of.
Luke Kornet OVER 10.5 Points + Rebounds (-110) — 1-unit
Kornet was slightly over this number on average in 30 games without Kristaps Porzingis last season — 6.7 points and 5.0 rebounds. But if we just stick to the 21 regular season games, eliminating the tightened playoff rotation, Kornet was even more productive — 8.0 points and 5.5 rebounds in 20 minutes per game.
Al Horford is another year older, and played very sparingly in the preseason. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Joe Mazzulla keep Horford on an even tighter leash this season, especially with how crucial his postseason value wound up being given multiple injuries to Porzingis. Kornet should be in for a solid role on opening night, and faces a softer matchup this season in the Knicks. New York shipped out Isaiah Hartenstein and will be without Mitchell Robinson. I like the matchup on the interior for Kornet against Karl-Anthony Towns and the backups.
Payton Pritchard OVER 1.5 Made 3-Pointers (-115) — 1-unit
The Celtics are loaded on the perimeter, but Jrue Holiday and Derrick White spent the summer competing in the Olympics, and there’s no reason to push them too much out of the gates. Mazzulla and the Celtics believe in Pritchard, and this could be a season he earns a larger role.
When he does get in the game, his job is to hoist. Obviously, Pritchard won’t be in an identical situation to the preseason, but he was getting triples up at an elite rate from what we did see. Pritchard hit multiple 3-pointers in all five preseason games, including three games with five or more. He shot a grand total of 21-for-43 from beyond the arc in 110 minutes. That’s 4.2 makes per game (on 8.6 attempts), while playing an average of 22 minutes.
Pritchard could easily see 20 minutes in this game, and should see plenty of open looks. Another small piece of analysis, but worth mentioning — Pritchard has essentially accepted the role of being the guy to take the last minute heave at the end of quarters. You saw that play out in the NBA Finals. They are generally more difficult shots, but opportunities are opportunities. We’ll take them.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
