In the first leg of a Monday Night Football doubleheader, the Baltimore Ravens are set to face off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Baltimore is off to a 4-2 start to the season and seem to be finding their stride. Tampa Bay also holds a 4-2 record and has found its identity as a team. Tampa Bay can take sole possession of the NFC South with a victory, while the Ravens will be tied with the Steelers for first place in the AFC North.
The Ravens enter the matchup as 3.5-point favorites and -192 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Buccaneers are considered +160 underdogs on the moneyline and the over/under sits at 50 points in the matchup. Looking deeper than just the game result or scoring total, here are four player props I like for the Monday night matchup.
Derrick Henry Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
One of the biggest moves of the NFL offseason was the Ravens’ addition of Derrick Henry. Baltimore has their eyes fully on a Super Bowl and Henry’s physical rushing style has provided a unique element to the offense. This has been by far the most talented offense Henry has been a part of and the four-time Pro Bowl running back has been a seamless fit.
Henry struggled in his debut with the Ravens and was limited to just 46 rushing yards on opening night against the Chiefs. Since then, he has recorded weekly rushing totals of 84, 151, 199, 92, and 132 yards. He is averaging 117.3 rushing yards per game overall. Henry leads the NFL with 704 rushing yards and is tied for the most rushing touchdowns with eight already this season.
While 88 rushing yards is a high bar for a running back in today’s NFL, this is well within Derrick Henry’s capabilities. Baltimore is committed to the run game and Henry’s physicality is the key to opening up the rest of the offense. He has not been held under 88 yards rushing since Week 2 and has cleared this number in four consecutive games. Tampa Bay ranks 13th in rush yards allowed and 27th in total yards given up on the season. Count on Henry to clear this number once again and have plenty of opportunity to do so.
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-145)
The redemption arc of Baker Mayfield is here to stay. The former first overall pick has found his footing down in Tampa Bay and is at the epicenter of the Buccaneers’ style of play. So far this season, Mayfield has completed 70.9% of his passes for 1,489 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions.
While the Ravens have a strong defense, they have not quite lived up to their reputation. So far this season they rank 24th in points allowed per game and 17th in yards given up. Looking specifically at the passing defense, Baltimore is dead last in passing yards allowed, 29th in passing touchdowns given up, and 27th in yards per pass attempt.
Tampa Bay leans on the pass as their primary method of offensive attack and this is the biggest weakness within the Ravens defense. Expect the Buccaneers to air the ball out plenty and for this to continue to be their primary form of attack. Mayfield has thrown for two or more touchdowns in four of the six games, including two four-TD games. Expect him to reach two touchdowns in this matchup and take advantage of the -145 odds.
Mark Andrews Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
It has been a turbulent start to the season for Mark Andrews as he was held without a reception in Weeks 3 and 4. Andrews was not held without a catch in any game last year. However, the three-time Pro Bowler is coming off his two best performances of the season in which he combined for seven receptions, 121 yards and a touchdown.
While there is some truth to Isaiah Likely eating into Andrews’ targets, the 29-year-old will remain an important part of the offense. Despite having two games without a reception, Andrews has eclipsed 30.5 receiving yards in three of six appearances. He also had 30 or more receiving yards in all but one game he played in last year.
Tampa Bay is far from a shutdown defense and the Ravens are the fourth-ranked scoring offense. Expect Andrews to be a key part of this and for him to receive targets throughout. He is averaging 14.3 yards per reception so far this year, so it could take just two receptions for him to clear this number if the opportunity arises. This feels like a situation where the line has overcorrected, which you can take advantage of. Expect Andrews to begin to return to the high-level tight end he has proven to be and eclipse 30.5 receiving yards in the Monday night matchup.
Baker Mayfield to have 125+ Passing Yards in Each Half (+210)
So far this season, Baker Mayfield is averaging 248.2 passing yards per game. The former first overall pick also has averaged 268.6 passing yards per game in nine career matchups against the Ravens, including four 340-plus yard games. He has thrown for 325 passing yards or more twice already this season, and has a great matchup against a Ravens defense that ranks dead last in passing yards given up.
Tampa Bay already leans on a pass-first attack for the offense and the matchup will only reinforce their outlook. Expect Mayfield to come out slinging. His personal record is 237 passing yards in a half, but in this bet, we are looking for him to throw for just 125 passing yards in each half.
While having to hit this number in each half comes with more risk, the +210 payout is worth taking a chance on. Expect the Buccaneers to lean on a pass-oriented attack and for their impressive wide receiver group to cause issues within this Baltimore defense. He should have plenty of opportunity to air the ball out, so I like his chances of reaching 125+ passing yards in both halves.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
