The Yankees have a chance to close out the ALCS on Saturday and move on to the World Series if they can vanquish the Guardians in Game 5 in Cleveland. Both teams have been extremely resilient throughout the series, bouncing back multiple times from “big blows” from the other team. Friday night’s Game 4 was another back-and-forth, tight game with drama throughout. The Yankees pushed two runs across in the ninth inning to break a 6-6 tie and win 8-6 to take a 3-1 series lead. A win on Saturday will move them into the World Series, but nothing in this series has come easily.
The Yankees should feel good about giving the ball to Carlos Rodon, who won Game 1 with a strong showing. The Guardians counter with Tanner Bibee, who will be on short rest after lasting only 1 1/3 innings in Game 2. Can Bibee and the Guardians bounce back again and extend the series to a Game 6 on Monday or will Rodon and the Yankees get almost a full week off before the World Series begins next Friday? Let’s break it down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st] (NYY @ CLE).
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Pick
Carlos Rodon ($17,400): While Rodon is the easiest answer at Captain’s Pick, he’s also very expensive and stretches the rest of your cap space thin. If he pitches like he did in Game 1, he’ll also be the right answer, but at this cost, he’ll need to return a huge number to be worth the investment. He dominated in Game 1, earning 31.7 fantasy points in six innings with just one run allowed and nine strikeouts. He has that kind of upside again, especially since he has been so effective against lefties and is on full rest.
Despite some rough road splits, mostly from early in the season, I think he’s the way to go since he finished the season on such a strong run. He allowed two earned runs or less in five straight September starts, stacking up 34 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings to go with his 2.20 ERA and 4.67 FIP. He was knocked around a bit by the Royals in the ALDS, but he looked strong enough and brings enough strikeout upside to be my top Captain’s Pick on Saturday.
With Bibee on short rest, leaving out the Cleveland starter creates enough space to pay up for Rodon as the Captain’s Pick and still include solid bats as well. Another dominant performance like Game 1 could even put him in the conversation for ALCS MVP, where he starts the day as a +4000 long shot to win the award.
UTIL Plays
Giancarlo Stanton ($8,400): Stanton has the shortest odds to win ALCS MVP at +175, and he’s a strong play at a UTIL spot or even as a contrarian Captain’s Pick play if Rodon feels too chalky. Stanton is cheaper than both starting pitchers and three other hitters, but he’s been on a tear this postseason, which means he brings great value in this spot.
Stanton has three homers in the four games of this series and has averaged 12.75 fantasy points per game in New York’s eight postseason games. He has exactly 18 fantasy points in each of the last two games and also posted that number in Game 1. He’s a high-risk option since he isn’t collecting a lot of hits, but he brings elite upside since the hits he has had have been so impactful.
Steven Kwan ($7,600): Kwan is in a lefty-lefty matchup, but he is still a great play from the top of the Guardians’ lineup. After missing time toward the end of the regular season, he has looked great in the postseason, averaging 10.1 fantasy points in his nine playoff games. He had 19 fantasy points on Friday night, going 2-for-4 with a stolen base and three runs scored. When the Guardians offense gets going, it’s usually because Kwan is productive from the top spot in the batting order.
Lane Thomas ($6,800): While the Guardians lineup can sometimes struggle with lefties, Thomas is one of the exceptions to that rule. He hit .302 during the regular season against southpaws with a .378 wOBA and 146 wRC+ in the split. He showed his flair for the dramatic with a grand slam off lefty Tarik Skubal in the ALDS when the Guardians faced elimination in Game 5, and he is a nice value option under $7,000 with a good upside against Rodon. If you need to go even cheaper, Jhonkensy Noel ($5,200) and Anthony Volpe ($6,400) are worth a look.
Fades
Tanner Bibee ($11,400): At this salary and on short rest, I don’t think Bibee is worth paying up for in any roster builds. Since the Guardians are facing elimination, he’ll also be pulled at the first sign of any trouble. While I’ve backed Bibee multiple times this season, I don’t think he works for Game 5. It makes much more sense to save the $2,000 and stack up big bats whether you choose to build around Rodon, Stanton or another big bat in your Captain’s Pick spot.
THE OUTCOME
The Guardians have played well with their backs against the wall and continually battled back into their season and games in this series. I’m definitely not counting them out, but their bullpen seems stretched very thin and with Emmanuel Clase ($4,000) struggling at the back end now, I don’t think they have the pitching to match Rodon and the Yankees in Game 5. As with most games in this series, I expect Saturday’s contest to be close and dramatic, but I think the Yankees will get just enough offense to take the win and move on to the World Series.
Final Score: Yankees 3, Guardians 2
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st] (NYY @ CLE).
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
