For the first time since 2019, the WNBA Finals will be decided by a winner-take-all Game 5. The New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx are set to clash on Sunday night at Barclays Center, with both teams looking to make history. After a gritty 82-80 win in Game 4, the Lynx forced the series back to Brooklyn, while the Liberty will aim to capitalize on their home-court advantage.
With history on the line, both teams will leave it all on the court in Game 5. The Liberty are aiming to secure their first WNBA title, and they’ll rely on the support of a sellout home crowd to energize them. “We love playing in front of our home crowd. It will definitely be loud, and we have to bring our A game,” said Liberty head coach Sandy Brondello.
The Lynx, however, are chasing a record fifth WNBA championship, and their experience in high-stakes situations could prove advantageous. Minnesota’s head coach Cheryl Reeve has a proven track record in Game 5s, and she emphasized the importance of embracing the moment. “I feel very blessed in my career to have a chance to be a part of so many,” Reeve said.
Ahead of the series-deciding Game 5, DraftKings Sportsbook released the latest odds for the WNBA Finals:
Game 5 Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread
New York Liberty: -6 (-115)
Minnesota Lynx: +6 (-105)
Total Points
Over: 157 (-110)
Under: 157 (-110)
Moneyline
New York Liberty: -250
Minnesota Lynx: +205
The Liberty enter Game 5 as six-point favorites, banking on their track record to perform at home. New York has proven tough to beat at Barclays Center, but the Lynx have already shown they can disrupt the Liberty’s game plan and thrive under pressure. With a tightly contested Game 4 that saw 14 lead changes and 13 ties, Minnesota’s ability to grind out wins shouldn’t be underestimated.
A significant difference-making factor in Game 4 was the disparity in success in pick-and-roll both teams achieved. Against single coverage, the Liberty created 1.417 points per possession (PPP) but were held to just 0.5 PPP when the ball handler drew two defenders. Overall, New York created 0.824 PPP in pick-and-roll compared to 0.970 PPP by the Lynx. The roller generated only 0.455 PPP for the Liberty as well. A lot of improvement will be required in Game 5 since these sequences account for such a significant share of New York’s offense. In each victory the Liberty has achieved in this series, the offense scored at least 10 points on rolls but was held to 5 points in Game 4 and went scoreless in Game 1.
Minnesota had a staggering 36-point outburst in spot-up in Game 4, marking the first time in the postseason the team had even reached the 30-point mark. It was more than what the Lynx offense had generated in this play type combined between Game 3 and Game 4, both of which were losses. Making New York play stagnant offensively while making their defense pay on the other end by making plays off the catch seems to be a winning formula.
The Lynx have found success by forcing New York into low-percentage shots inside the three-point line, suggesting that controlling the tempo could be key. Bettors looking at the spread should note that the Liberty have had their share of struggles against Minnesota’s defense, and the Lynx covering six points may be a solid option.
Player Props for Game 5 on DraftKings Sportsbook
Breanna Stewart (New York Liberty)
Points: O 20.5 (-120) / U 20.5 (-110)
Rebounds: O 9.5 (-125) / U 9.5 (-105)
Stewart struggled offensively in Game 4, finishing with 11 points on just 5-of-21 shooting, including 0-of-4 from beyond the arc. It marked one of her toughest outings, as Minnesota’s defense—led by Napheesa Collier—consistently doubled her and cut off driving lanes. Despite her shooting woes, Stewart still contributed with 11 rebounds, four assists, three steals, and a block.
Across the Finals, Stewart has averaged 20.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. She also passed Lindsay Whalen and tied Diana Taurasi for the sixth-most field goals made in WNBA Finals history, further solidifying her impact on the biggest stage.
After a rough shooting night, Stewart remained optimistic about her team’s chances heading into Game 5, emphasizing the importance of mental resilience. “I think that, you know, for our team, we bounce back after a loss really, really well, and making sure that everybody is on the same page going forward,” she said. “In the playoffs, in a series, there’s going to be momentum shifts. There were momentum shifts in the game tonight. But mentally, understanding what’s our ultimate goal, how are things going right here. Like (coach) Sandy (Brondello) said in the locker room, we haven’t won anything yet; we haven’t lost anything yet. And we have the opportunity to do that Sunday.”
Despite a tough Game 4, Stewart’s points line remains at 20.5. Those familiar with her game know that she rarely has two off nights in a row. Stewart has bounced back with big performances after low-scoring games all season, and this pattern could continue Sunday. Bettors expecting her to reclaim her scoring touch might find value in betting the Over.
Napheesa Collier (Minnesota Lynx)
Points: O 20.5 (-115) / U 20.5 (-115)
Rebounds: O 9.5 (+105) / U 9.5 (-135)
Collier was pivotal for the Lynx in Game 4, recording 14 points, nine rebounds, four assists, and four steals. She has been a steady contributor throughout the Finals, averaging 18.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game.
Her defense on Stewart was crucial, as she led Minnesota’s efforts to contain the Liberty’s top scorer. Collier’s postseason performance has been historic, as she now has the second-most combined steals and blocks (44) in a postseason, just three behind Tamika Catchings’ record of 47 from 2009.
A scoring line at 20.5 is reflective of Collier’s consistency throughout the postseason. Those favoring the Over can rely on her consistent shot volume and ability to impact the game on both ends. The plus odds on her rebounds line are also enticing, especially if Minnesota forces a heavy dose of missed shots and controls the glass.
Sabrina Ionescu (New York Liberty)
Points: O 17.5 (+105) / U 17.5 (-135)
Threes: O 2.5 (-120) / U 2.5 (-110)
Assists: O 5.5 (+130) / U 5.5 (-166)
Ionescu’s struggles continued in Game 4, where she managed just 10 points on 5-of-15 shooting, including 0-of-5 from three-point range. Despite this, she has averaged 14.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game in the Finals, while making 2.0 three-pointers per game. Although she hasn’t been consistent with her scoring, Ionescu’s ability to hit big shots is well known.
The Liberty will need her to rediscover that form, and bettors could find intrigue in her three-point prop if she manages to bounce back at home. Her line of 17.5 points suggests a chance for redemption. If she can regain her rhythm, especially from deep, the Over becomes appealing. It was encouraging to see her take a higher volume of shot attempts in Game 4 than she had in her previous two performances. She’ll just need to connect more to hit the Over.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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