It’s Game 5 of the MLB ALCS. The Guardians are alive but can they survive? The games mean more in the MLB postseason, and even more with DraftKings Sportsbook action. DraftKings offers plenty of ways to play, from betting on the moneyline to the run line and even dabbling in player props, if that’s what you’re into.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s MLB Postseason betting card on Oct. 19.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees
The Pick: Guardians Moneyline (+102)
Cleveland survived two elimination games in the ALDS. A World Series appearance will require three in the ALCS. It’s one thing to win two in a row but three is tough. Three is tough in the regular season, let alone the postseason. Three with two on the road is challenging. The two on the road aren’t just away games. They’ll be played in Yankee Stadium in front of a playoff-pumped crowd. Last but not least, Cleveland has to win three in a row against the best team in baseball.
Three wins aren’t necessary on Saturday. Only one is needed. Cleveland must approach survival one game at a time. One inning at a time. One pitch at a time. The Guardians trailed in Game 5 of the ALDS and rallied for the win. They rallied in Game 3 of the ALCS before Emmanuel Clase blew another game on Friday night — so much for that Cy Young. The Guardians have fight left in them. They don’t quit and long-suffering Cleveland fans don’t quit.
New York is loose. Are the Yankees so loose they lose? It’s happened to the best of them. Can the Yankees finish the job in Cleveland or does this series go back to the Bronx? The Guardians aren’t going to lay down but Carlos Rodon sat down nine Guardians in Game 1. His slider was deadly. Rodon struck out seven in his other postseason performance. He also allowed four runs in 3.1 innings against the Royals in that lone ALDS appearance. When Rodon misses, the hitters don’t. Rodon has surrendered a 41% HardHit% in the postseason. That’s right on with his season average. He’s allowing 1.9 HR/9 in his two starts. It was 1.6 HR/9 this season. While 16 strikeouts to 0 walks sounds great, it means Rodon is staying over the plate. Changeups in the dirt don’t go over fences, but a steady stream of hard stuff in the zone can go both ways. The Cleveland way is over the wall. Rodon can have his best stuff, but his best stuff may not be enough. This game comes down to mistakes. Loose teams make mistakes. Pressure works both ways. The New York way — the way to lose by being way too loose — is a lazy pitch. A hanger that becomes a banger. An early error and lead is all the city of Cleveland needs.
The Pick: Tanner Bibee Strikeouts Thrown 5+ (+155)
Stephen Vogt has got to be stopped. Vogt’s got no shot and the Guardians go nowhere if Cleveland’s manager keeps yanking his starters. The bullpen has pitched 49.1 innings in the postseason. The starters have pitched 29.2. The relievers tossed 6.2 innings after going a light four in Game 3. Bibee only lasted 1.1 innings before getting yanked in Game 2. The bullpen’s arms are taxed. Vogt’s got to leave Bibee be.
It’s hard to get behind this pick after his first appearance against the Bronx Bombers. Bibee was excellent in the ALDS despite Vogt’s short leash. He simply had a bad game in Game 2. It happens. Actually, it rarely happens. Bibee earned a 3.47 ERA in 173.2 innings in 2024. The Yankees strung together a couple hits, there was an error and the quick Vogt hook happened. Bibee could have righted the ship. Vogt needs to stand down and sit on his hands Saturday. It’s sink-or-swim with their starter. Bibee has to be Cleveland’s ace. He has to be the pitcher that struck out 187 hitters this season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
