Welcome to this edition of the DraftKings NFL DFS Edge Check! This week we are going to be using the Contest Simulations over at Paydirtdfs.com to take a look at each position and highlight some of the most undervalued options based on the sim results. This process involves utilizing ownership projections and projection distributions and simulating contest outcomes to better understand how valuable a player really is in different field sizes.
We are going to break down the top overall edges which gives us plays to focus on. If you want to see the players that appear to be overvalued that will hurt you in GPPs, check out the full Contest Sims on the site. If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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QB Edge Distributions
We have a bit more parity in the contest sims this week than last week, although there are still some clear edges to exploit. Both Kirk Cousins ($6,300) and Jayden Daniels ($7,600) look to offer up a bunch of positive edge with marks of +19.42% and 12.56% respectively. Cousins shows up in 27% of winning simulations while Daniels shows up in 33.20%. There are some big differences in the cost of both salary and volatility, as Cousins is cheaper and projected for lower ownership by good amounts, meaning that the direction you go with the rest of your lineup is largely dictated by which side you choose.
Some other strong plays at QB are Geno Smith ($5,800), Sam Darnold ($6,200), Anthony Richardson ($6,000) and Daniel Jones ($5,400). While Smith and Darnold are neutral plays in terms of edge and projected for some significant ownership, we can get some real volatility from Richardson and Jones. The key here is understanding what you need from your QB to pay off their salary and ownership and pairing them with options that can make up for their strengths or weaknesses.
RB Edge Distributions
The top five RBs in terms of positive edge on this slate are shown above, and each one has some interesting wrinkles.
- Tony Pollard ($6,300) is still underpriced for his role and especially with Tajae Spears already ruled out he needs to be a priority. He is going to come with some ownership (currently projected around 15%) but that is justified by a Medain / Ceiling combo of 17.36 / 34.55 along with a matchup against BUF who give up the second most fantasy points above average to opposing RBs.
- Bijan Robinson ($7,100) and Kenneth Walker ($7,300) are, by all accounts, the exact same play this week. The game environment for SEA/ATL is one of the best on the slate with a game total of 50+ and considering the roles for both of these guys they should have a hand in the scoring.
- Brian Robinson Jr. ($6,400) makes for a solid leverage play this week against CAR who is giving up 10.7 fantasy points above average to opposing RBs. He is currently projected for 12.98% ownership but I think that comes in lower as people will put more focus on Pollard/Hubbard.
Of all these players I think that Kareem Hunt ($6,000) is the most interesting. In week 5 he handled 75% of the rushing attempts and 50% of the inside the five rushing attempts leading to 18.8 fantasy points and he should be in line to have the same role. His price is too low for the expected production and his ownership isn’t taking that into account.
All five of these RBs are great for different reasons and your player pool should start with them.
WR Edge Distributions
It’s going to be really hard to pass up on JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4,000) as a value play this week. His positive edge offered at an ownership projection of 23% is +14.25%, meaning that you could boost that ownership to 35% actual and still have him be relatively undervalued. It’s just a shame that his pricetag didn’t come up but these are the cards that we were dealt so we gotta play them and that means likely having a bunch of exposure to JuJu. Realistically you should be looking to pair him with Mahomes in GPPs to mitigate some of the ownership, but even as a one off it’s hard to argue with what he unlocks.
Ray-Ray McCloud III ($4,400) comes up as a strong positive edge option again with an exposure rate in winning lineups of 28.90% while his projected ownership is in the 15-17% range. He has mostly been a pedestrian option but considering how strong this game environment is and how consistent his role has been it’s fair to consider him a strong value with 15+ PPR point upside.
My favorite name on this list is Stefon Diggs ($7,700), as The ROO and models over at Paydirt think that HOU stacks make a lot of sense in GPPs. Diggs experienced his highest aDOT of the season with no Collins and we have seen him be an alpha WR in recent years so we know he can handle the role.
TE Edge Distributions
We still get to leverage an underpriced Zach Ertz ($3,900), as he makes for an easy-button pairing with Jayden Daniels on a team with one of the highest team totals on the slate. His 22.60% exposure rate in winning lineups is the highest of any TE and his +9.81% edge is going to give you some room to eat ownership and lower volatility elsewhere.
The next main options in terms of positive edge offered are David Njoku ($4,100) and Brock Bowers ($5,800), both of which are looking to benefit in a big way from the recent trades of Amari Cooper and Davante Adams. The project for about 9% ownership each and offer up 6.47% and +2.94% edges respectively and make for much different types of roster construction components. If you have the money, the median / ceiling combo for Bowers (16.66 / 36.30) is higher than any other TE on the slate over in the Paydirt models.
Overall Thoughts on the Sims
There are a bunch of different ways to go on this slate in terms of price, projection, ownership, and roster construction. We can see from the contest sims results that there are going to be options in every price point for QB, RB, and WR that offer up some positive edge, so you can end up mixing and matching for your preference and finding a good play where you might need one without too much hassle.
That is a good thing, but it can also make you build in a way that is a bit “lazy”. You may find yourself just plugging in a bunch of high-owned plays and ignoring correlation because it feels easy to do so, but in doing that you’ll end up leaving ceiling and upside on the table while failing to build out proper relative value. Keep your process tight, play some WAS and ATL stacks, and make some money.
Good luck and go grab some trophies. And remember, If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Multichem) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.