Refine your research with the DraftKings Sportsbook’s Stats Hub!
From Consistency Sheets and Matchup Tools to System Tools and Player Splits, the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats hub features tools to help with your betting research!
New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians
The Pick: Game total over 7.5 runs -112
This total is going to be on the move and will reach eight at some point. Hell, I wouldn’t be shocked if this end up creeping up to 8.5, so I would get this sooner rather than later. We have two starting pitchers going tonight who have YET to throw a pitch in the playoffs. Luis Gil and Gavin Williams are going tonight for their respective teams and I’m not liking either to pitch well.
There was some chatter of Gil being an early Cy Young candidate in the first half of the season. That chatter fell off faster than Joker Folie à deux did in the second week of its release. From June to September, Gil has a 4.58 ERA with a 4.94 FIP and a .338 wOBA. His lack of command can put him into trouble quickly and he’s facing a team that will draw walks. Lefties are also a big thorn in his side and the Guards will be loaded with him. I’d expect seven in the lineup tonight, which could really put an early end to Gil’s night.
On the other side, Williams hasn’t pitched in a game since September 22. I don’t like this spot for him against the Yankees, as they hit both the four-seam and slider well. The Yankees are one of the few teams that have good numbers combined against the sliders, with a .325 wOBA and a .212 ISO on the season. Austin Wells even hits that pitch well, so maybe he’ll do something tonight too! Regardless of how Williams does, his leash (and Gil) will be very short. The Guardians’ bullpen, which was once their strength, has quickly become its weakness.
The Pick: Jose Ramirez over 0.5 walks +145
You’re probably not fired up to bet a walk prop on a Friday evening but I like it a lot. Ramirez is one of the most patient hitters in the Guardians lineup. With Gil taking the mound and how wild he can be, I’m taking it at +145.
As mentioned, Gil struggles more with lefties and the walk rate against them follows suit. He has a 13% walk rate against left-handed hitters during the regular season. Ramirez will hit from the left side against Gil and thus giving him this advantage. Ramirez has already drawn five walks during the playoffs, which is tied for the most on the team.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
Place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
