After Sabrina Ionescu hit a game-winning step-back three-pointer to guide the New York Liberty to an 80-77 victory in Game 3, the Minnesota Lynx must win on their home floor to avoid elimination in the WNBA Finals.
The Liberty had to overcome a 15-point deficit to put themselves in a position to clinch a 2-1 series lead using Ionescu’s iconic shot. With the game on the line on the final play, the plan was executed to perfection. “In the timeout, (coach) Sandy (Brondello) was like, ‘You’re going to shoot the shot,'” Ionescu said.
The Liberty’s margin for error was razor-thin in clutch time. The team trailed by a seven-point margin with 2:26 left in regulation. New York scored eight consecutive points to take the lead, with Ionescu making multiple pivotal three-pointers down the stretch.
Before Game 4 tips off, DraftKings Sportsbook released the latest odds for the WNBA Finals:
Game 4 Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread
New York Liberty: -3 (-110)
Minnesota Lynx: +3 (-110)
Total Points
Over: 159.5 (-110)
Under: 159.5 (-110)
Moneyline
New York Liberty: -148
Minnesota Lynx: +124
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Liberty are favored to win Game 4 by three points. The Lynx had built a favorable position in Game 3 before squandering their advantage in the second half. Minnesota went from leading 60-50 late in the third quarter to trailing 62-61 at the end of it. Had they managed the game better, this series very well could have been flipped.
The Liberty’s stars, Ionescu and Breanna Stewart, proved too much to handle for the Lynx when it mattered most. Stewart had a dominant scoring tear in the second half for the Liberty — scoring 22 of her 30 points after halftime. She accounted for almost half of the team’s 45 points. If she has a strong follow-up in Game 4, she could comfortably hit her over for points set at 21.5. “We don’t win this game without Stewie,” said Ionescu.
The Lynx remain confident in their chances of pulling off a victory to extend the series to a pivotal Game 5. Minnesota’s head coach, Cheryl Reeve, praised the team’s defensive execution and felt the team had a legitimate chance to win Game 3 because of it. With better offensive execution, the Lynx are confident their defense will perform even better.
“Our defense gave us a chance to win the game, period, and our offense is going to help our defense,” Reeve said. “If you told me that we would have got the amount of stops that we did and we were playing off that, and we wouldn’t have scored 80, that would be surprising to me.”
Likewise, the Liberty are eager to perform better from start to finish when returning to action in Game 4. “There’s a lot of things that we didn’t do right tonight and have a kind of quick memory,” Breanna Stewart said. “I think that we’re happy we got this win but the job’s not done.”
Player Props for Game 4 on DraftKings Sportsbook
Breanna Stewart (New York Liberty)
Points: O 21.5 (-115) / U 21.5 (-115)
Rebounds: O 9.5 (-120) / U 9.5 (-110)
Threes: O 1.5 (+100) / U 2.5 (+110)
Stewart had an iconic performance in Game 3, providing the Lynx with 30 points, 11 rebounds and four blocks, while sinking a pair of three-pointers. The expectations have been raised for Game 4 based on the latest odds. With 11 rebounds in Game 3, it was Stewart’s third double-figure rebounding performance of the postseason.
She pulled down nine boards in four consecutive games, but needs 10 to hit the over. She’s favored to reach the 10-mark. DraftKings Sportsbook added a three-point shooting prop for Stewart after previously not having one entering Game 3. It’s an intriguing proposition on either side for bettors to consider since Stewart has made multiple shots from beyond the arc in all three of her performances this series. However, that only happened in two of her six performances prior.
Stewart, a two-time WNBA champion from her time with the Seattle Storm, understands as well as anyone what to expect when a team has their back against the wall on the biggest stage. It’s safe to say, she’s going to bring it in Game 4.
“We know we’re one game away from winning the championship, and I think that they are going to give us their best shot,” Stewart said. “They are going to give everything they have got, and you know what, so are we. The turnaround is quick but we are going to continue to be ready.”
Napheesa Collier (Minnesota Lynx)
Points: O 20.5 (-115) / U 20.5 (-115)
Rebounds: O 9.5 (+114) / U 9.5 (-145)
While the Lynx lost, Collier provided another big performance doing what she could to try to guide Minnesota to victory. She ended her night with 22 points, nine rebounds and five blocks in 40 minutes.
Collier has averaged 24.9 points per game in the postseason, making the Over/Under of 20.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook a favorable position for bettors to consider. Aside from a 16-point performance in Game 2 of the WNBA Finals, she’s scored 21 points or more in her last six games. With the season on the line for the Lynx, it’s difficult to envision her not shooting as many times as possible given she’s already coming off a postseason-high 22 shot attempts.
Aside from scoring, the only other prop for Collier is for rebounds. She would need to record a double-figure rebounding performance to hit the over, but it’s worth considering. While she has yet to have one of these performances in the WNBA Finals, she had 11 or more in four out of five outings against the Connecticut Sun in the previous round. Given the odds, it’s worth consideration for bettors.
Sabrina Ionescu (New York Liberty)
Points: O 17.5 (-110) / U 17.5 (-120)
Threes: O 2.5 (-150) / U 2.5 (+110)
Assists: O 5.5 (+100) / U 5.5 (-130)
Ionescu not only delivered a memorable game-winning shot in Game 3, but she provided the Liberty with 13 points, five rebounds, and six assists, which makes her betting outlook for Game 4 on DraftKings Sportsbook an interesting one to analyze.
Ionescu’s scoring total has finished under her prop for two consecutive games, but she averaged 20.5 points per game in her two performances before that. Her volume of shot attempts has been volatile in this series. She attempted 26 shots in Game 1 and has averaged only 10.5 attempts since.
Ionescu’s six assists in Game 3 was the first time she had finished above five since doing so against the Atlanta Dream in Game 2 of the WNBA Semifinals. She would need to do it again in Game 4 to hit the over, but given how close she’s finished numerous times this postseason, it’s worth a consideration.
The motivation to avenge last year’s WNBA Finals loss against the Las Vegas Aces is strong for this Liberty team. However, the significance of New York as a community is a force behind Ionescu’s drive. “It would mean everything,” Ionescu said. “Stephen A. was on today just talking [about] how it brings him chills to think about a championship in New York, and it’s just so many people who have New York running deep in their veins, wanting a championship.”
Does Alanna Smith Have Enough Left?
One of the top factors entering Game 4 is the potential impact of Alanna Smith despite being “banged up” this late in the season. She’s dealt with back issues that were aggravated in Game 3.
“I’m banged up, I won’t lie,” Smith said. “But we’re in the WNBA Finals. How your body feels shouldn’t matter that much. Everybody is playing through aches and pains at this point. A big part of what helps me is my teammates. I have a great support system and am not going through it alone.”
The Lynx are aware of the importance of Smith’s versatility in this series. Reeve recently cited just how impactful this team’s execution has been with Smith in the starting five, with a “plus-20 net rating.” Reeved added, “Insert someone else, and it’s not. We need her. If it doesn’t happen, it doesn’t happen and it’s just really unlucky.”
What Can Each Team Improve?
It was a tightly contested game in many major categories in Game 3, but the Liberty certainly can take better care of the basketball. A total of 18 turnovers led to 18 points for the Lynx — creating a 10-point disadvantage in points off turnovers. If New York can cut this total down next game, it’ll make it more difficult for Minnesota to get out on the break.
Minnesota shot poorly from inside the arc by going 20-of-54 (37%) on two-point field goals. Outside of Collier shooting 8-of-21 on these particular attempts, the Lynx shot only 12-of-33 (36.4%). Unless this improves in Game 4, it’ll be tough to overcome against such a talented team with closers like Stewart and Ionescu.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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