A pair of one-win teams will do battle on Sunday morning in England, as the Patriots meet the Jaguars. Jacksonville will be playing its second game in a row across the pond, while the Patriots will look to build upon Drake Maye’s debut last week. In his first start I backed Maye to go over his rushing prop, this week I’ll be switching to another prop on the rookie in his second NFL start.
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Drake Maye 200+ Passing Yards (-115)
1.5-units
While I lean to the over on Maye’s rushing prop again, he is dealing with a knee injury this week, and the matchup with Jacksonville dictates the pass. The Patriots are underdogs in this one yet again, so the game script should be there, but even if the Patriots are playing from ahead, the way to exploit the Jags is through the air.
Jacksonville ranks dead last in the NFL in passing yards allowed, and are giving up over 300 passing yards per game over the last three games. Maye completed 20-of-33 passes last week, going for 243 yards, three touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. That came against a Houston defense that ranks fourth in passing yards allowed this season.
Now, with a bit more experience under his belt, Maye is in position to take advantage of a cushy matchup. Because the Patriots have been so abysmal passing the ball on the season, the numbers are still set way too low. This isn’t Jacoby Brissett anymore. New England has moved onto the future here, and would be smart to let Maye air it out.
Deshaun Watson is the only quarterback that has failed to reach 200 yards passing against Jacksonville’s defense, and we know what a mess the Browns are right now. The other five opposing quarterbacks have cleared this mark pretty easily, including three 300-yard passers. I’ll stick to Maye getting to a reasonable 200 yards here, but if you want to play some higher alternates and mix in some touchdown passes in a Same Game Parlay, I wouldn’t argue with you.
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