The Steelers host the Jets in a high-profile Sunday Night Football matchup. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jets (-1.5) at Steelers o/u 38.5
Jets Team Breakdown
The Jets have lost three straight games by a combined ten points. They missed a game-winning field goal against the Broncos, they missed two late field goals against the Bills and they turned the ball over on a potential game-winning drive against the Vikings. During that stretch, they fired their head coach, demoted their offensive coordinator and traded for Davante Adams. It’s safe to say it has been a rollercoaster of a month for the Jets and they need to be all-in to win this game if they hope to achieve anything this season.
The offense looked much better last week under Todd Downing but stalled out in the red zone a couple of times which resulted in the missed field goals. In Week 6, they ranked 10th in the NFL in EPA/play and their two superstars, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, both had huge games. Aaron Rodgers also had arguably his best game as a Jet. The addition of Davante Adams won’t fix some of the problems this team has but he should play a big role right away. It’s been clear that Aaron Rodgers and Mike Williams don’t have a good connection and miscommunication between the two of them has cost the Jets on their final drives against both the Vikings and Bills.
The Jets’ defense has been solid this season but not as dominant as the past two seasons. Their pass rush has struggled since Jermaine Johnson went down early in the season and injuries to Michael Carter and DJ Reed have hurt their secondary as well. That being said, they still rank 6th in the league in EPA/dropback but the rush defense has been below-average. The one piece of good news for the Jets is after playing limited snaps in his return from injury last week, CJ Mosley is completely healthy heading into this game.
Steelers Team Breakdown
The Steelers are also making a big change this week by starting Russell Wilson at quarterback. This is a controversial decision because they are 4-2 and tied atop the AFC North with Fields at quarterback. There have been some reports that players in the Steelers’ locker room are not happy about the decision to bench Fields in favor of Wilson. In this particular matchup against the Jets, Wilson does seem like a strange choice.
The Jets have a good pass rush, particularly in the middle of the line with Quinnen Williams. The Steelers are also banged up on the offensive line with center Zach Frazier yet to practice as of Thursday. That interior pressure that the Jets will create will cause the quarterback to need to roll out and use his legs. That style of play fits Justin Fields much better than Russell Wilson at this stage of his career. During his time in Denver, Wilson had a major issue taking sacks and that could be an issue in this matchup as well.
The Steelers do have an elite defense. TJ Watt is once again one of the best pass rushers in football and he should give the Jets offensive line a lot of issues. Aaron Rodgers was hit a lot last week against the Bills and the Steelers could give them a lot of the same problems. The Steelers have had some issues on the back end of their defense, ranking 13th in EPA/dropback. That is obviously still above average but not nearly as good as their rush defense.
Pick and Prediction
The Steelers have faced a pretty easy schedule of offenses so far this season. The quarterbacks they have faced this season are Kirk Cousins in his first game back from injury, a hobbled Justin Herbert, Bo Nix, Joe Flacco, Aidan O’Connell and Dak Prescott. None of those offenses have the amount of weapons that the Jets have to offer. If Davante Adams can click right off the bat, this offense will be really tough for any secondary to contain. The Jets should be able to build on the things that Todd Downing did well when calling plays last week.
The Jets should be able to get some pressure on Russell Wilson and in his first game back from injury, he is likely to have some rust. Wilson could be forced into some mistakes and will not be nearly as mobile as Justin Fields has been. If Sauce Gardner can take away George Pickens, the Steelers are pretty limited when it comes to their other offensive weapons. Overall, the Jets’ defense is much better than the Steelers’ offense and they should struggle to move the ball.
The Jets desperately need a win and little things like penalties and special teams have just not broken their way the past three weeks. Variance should break in the Jets’ favor this week and they should pick up the win in a low-scoring game. Therefore, I am betting the Jets on the short spread and the under.
Best Bet: Jets -1.5, u38
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