The Dodgers are looking to move onto the World Series while the Guardians are trying to tie the ALCS up. It’s another day of both Championship series games, starting at 5:08 p.m. ET. I’ll give you some of favorite MLB bets I’m placing on DraftKings Sportsbook that you can tail along with.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
The Pick: Dodgers run line -1.5 +130
If you read my article yesterday, you’ll know we took this bet last night. We won it with ease, as the Dodgers clobbered the Mets by a score of 10-2. This Dodgers club is winning by a massive margin in the playoffs, which now sits at 6.1 runs. As you’d imagine, with a margin like that, they’re cashing the run line bets. Tonight, it could be more of the same, as they’ll be facing the lefty David Peterson.
I would expect the leash to be quick on Peterson, who has been used in more of a relief role in the playoffs. He hasn’t thrown more than three inning in an outing through four appearances. He does have the ability to go deep into games, as he threw at least 6.1 innings three times in September. I simply don’t know how deep the Mets want or expect him to go. Nonetheless, it’s going to be the same situation as last night. He’s a lefty that throws a lot of sinkers. That didn’t go well for Jose Quintana last night and I expect the same for Peterson. Tonight’s Dodgers lineup has a combined .458 wOBA with a .240 ISO against that pitch against lefties. This doesn’t include Freddie Freeman, who may not play tonight. I can’t imagine much success for Peterson.
I’m expecting Peterson out of this game rather quickly, which means a lot of the Mets bullpen. There are reports saying that Kodai Senga will be available in relief. I don’t view that as a positive. The Dodgers roughed him up for three runs through just 1.1 innings earlier this series. If they’re starting with Peterson and then going to Senga, that’s two good matchups for the Dodgers. With Jack Flaherty looking sharp earlier in the series against the Mets, I think it’s curtains for the Mets season.
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
The Pick: Teoscar Hernandez over 1.5 H/R/RBI -105
Hernandez is a perfect example of someone who benefits from a loaded Dodgers lineup. In the playoffs, he’s slashing just .188/.350/.375 through nine games. Not great numbers, right? But he STILL has two home runs, seven RBI and five runs scored. He’s been doing the bare minimum and still putting up good offensive numbers.
That’s why, despite not collecting a ton of offense, I still like him to go over 1.5 H/R/RBI at almost even money. Peterson opening is a good matchup for him, as he owns a .433 wOBA and a .183 ISO against sinkers from a lefty. If and when we get to Senga, Hernandez has good numbers against the four seam and cutter, which Senga throws a combined 64% of the time. At the rate both Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts have been getting on base in front of him, Hernandez should most certainly have some RBI potential. It feels like a perfect storm for Hernandez tonight.
For more MLB Best Bets, check out our analysis on DraftKings Network!
New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians
The Pick: Game total over 7.5 runs -112
This total is going to be on the move and will reach eight at some point. Hell, I wouldn’t be shocked if this end up creeping up to 8.5, so I would get this sooner rather than later. We have two starting pitchers going tonight who have YET to throw a pitch in the playoffs. Luis Gil and Gavin Williams are going tonight for their respective teams and I’m not liking either to pitch well.
There was some chatter of Gil being an early Cy Young candidate in the first-half of the season. That chatter fell off faster than Joker Folie à deux did in the second week of it’s release. From June to September, Gil has a 4.58 ERA with a 4.94 FIP and a .338 wOBA. His lack of command can put him into trouble quickly and he’s facing a team that will draw walks. Lefties are also a big thorn in his side and the Guards will be loaded with him. I’d expect seven in the lineup tonight, which could really put an early end to Gil’s night.
On the other side, Williams hasn’t pitched in a game since September 22. I don’t like this spot for him against the Yankees, as they hit both the four seam and slider well. The Yankees are one of the few teams that have good numbers combined against the sliders, with a .325 wOBA and a .212 ISO on the season. Austin Wells even hits that pitch well, so maybe he’ll do something tonight too! Regardless of how Williams does, his leash (and Gil) will be very short. The Guardians bullpen, which was once their strength, has quickly become it’s weakness.
New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians
The Pick: Jose Ramirez over 0.5 walks +145
You’re probably not fired up to bet a walk prop on a Friday evening but I like it a lot. Ramirez is one of the most patient hitters in the Guardians lineup. With Gil taking the mound and how wild he can be, I’m taking it at +145.
As mentioned, Gil struggles more with lefties and the walk rate against them follows suit. He has a 13% walk rate against left-handed hitters during the regular season. Ramirez will hit from the left side against Gil and thus giving him this advantage. Ramirez has already drawn five walks during the playoffs, which is tied for the most on the team.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
