GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup, and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 7.
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Top DFS Stacks
Game Stack: Seahawks at Falcons
Geno Smith ($5,800) – DK Metcalf ($6,800) – Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,900) – Bijan Robinson ($7,100)
No need to reinvent the wheel this week. Atlanta and Seattle are facing off in a dome with a 51.0 point total that could rise by kickoff. Seattle should be in a spot to throw the ball 35+ times as the Falcons get little pressure on defense (last in sacks per game) which makes this a prime spot for Geno Smith to sit back and pick apart a secondary that has allowed five TDs over their last two outings. Seattle passes the ball far more often than Atlanta does to begin with (tenth in pass rate vs 31st for Atlanta) and Smith is also available at his cheapest price in over four weeks.
I’m more of a DK Metcalf guy, but both Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are in good spots this week. On top of Smith likely having mroe time for routes to develop down field, where Metcalf will be taking on A.J. Terrell, who is 77th/186 CBs in coverage grade on PFF, the Falcons have had their fair share of issues limiting slot receivers like Rashee Rice (12-110-1) and Diontae Johnson (6-78-1) this season. With the Seahawks QB available at such a low salary there is really no reason not to be aggressive and pair him with his top two options this week, and hope the Seahawks defense continues to allow points against at a historic rate.
On that note, while the Falcons offense has a ton of different players we can look at using as comeback options, I’m all for just jamming in Bijan Robinson, who is being rested in-week now by Atlanta as they prep him for bigger workloads. Robinson averaged 6.3 yards per carry in his last start against the Panthers and faces a Seattle defense that is 23rd in success rate against the run and has regressed as a defense as the season has worn on. Last week, they allowed plenty of huge plays to the 49ers RBs, Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo, who averaged 9.05 yards per carry.
I do think Darnell Mooney ($5,600) may be in for another big game but if you’re looking at targeting one Falcon, the rush/receiving ability of Robinson makes him the most ideal comeback play against a Seattle defense that allows big plays in both areas.
Quarterback
Anthony Richardson ($6,000)
Richardson’s price has dipped to a point where we don’t necessarily need him to have an efficient game to pay off; he just needs to take his usual alotment of carries and find the endzone at some point with his arm or legs. Richardson was on his way to a nice fantasy day in his last start before injurying his hip, but with him having practiced in full for nearly two weeks now, there doesn’t seem to be a whole ton of risk in playing him (or at least more than usually is).
The Dolphins aren’t the worst matchup either. They’re down their best rusher in Jaelan Phillips and have allowed 4.9 yards per carry over their last three games (and 7.9 ypc against the Patriots). Richardson is also far more likely ot be used in the red zone this week as a ball carrier without Jonathan Taylor (ankle) so while the offense may be less efficient without him, the red zone opportunities for Richardson are likely to be more plentiful. All-in-all, this is just a solid buy low spot on an elite rushing QB who the field in most major GPPs may still be luekwarm on, given that he’s already burned fantasy players with multiple poor efforts through the first six weeks of the season.
Running Back
High End: Kyren Williams ($8,100)
It’s hard to see how the Raiders will shut down the Rams rushing offense. Last weel they allowed Najee Harris to rush for over 100 yards and a TD, while averaging 7.16 yards per carry. Harris isn’t an explosive back by any means and Pittsburgh ranked just 23rd in EPA rush coming into that game. The Rams on the other hand have Kyren Williams, who is second in the league in rush success rate and rank fourth in the league in EPA per rush as an offensive unit.
The Raiders also just have a distinct lack of talent on the offensive side of the ball which is going to make it tough to keep the Rams out of their half of the field, and give Williams a chance to push for multiple scores. Just given the matchup and the Raiders woes on both sides of the ball, you could argue he’s mis-priced by a large margin this week, which makes eating higher ownership much more palatable.
Low End: Tyler Goodson ($5,400)
The Colts will be without Jonathan Taylor again this week and Trey Sermon ($5,500 – questonable) is also banged up, and coming off a game where he averaged 1.6 yards per carry. Goodson has shown far better than any Colts back up thus far, averaging 5.9 carries this season, on 13 attempts and will face off against a Dolphins team who have been easy to run agaisnt of late, allowing five rushing TDs over their last three games.
Ideally, you’d probably want Joe Flacco to start, who is no threat steal red zone carries, if you’re using Goodson, but with Sermon banged up now, the volume for Goodson is going to be solid regardless of who starts at QB. He’s also got PPR appeal (8 targets in two games) which makes up for the potential for him to get sniped on goal line carries. Watch the injury report, but if Sermon misses, or is limited, Goodson would be a near a must play at this price given the solid matchup. He’d also carry good leverage against Richardson lineups is his ownership stays somewhat lower.
Wide Receiver
High End: A.J. Brown ($8,000)
Brown asserted himself well in his return from injury in Week 5, going for six rec, 116 yards and a TD in his first game back against the Browns. This week, he’ll be another two weeks removed form a hamstring injury he suffered after Week 1 and facing a Giants team that is 22nd in EPA per dropback.
Brown is likely to be matched up with the somewhat undersized Deonte Banks in this game, who comes in ranked just 98th/186 on PFF in coverage this season. Given how week the Eagles defense is, I also expect we’ll see Philadelphia passing late into this game, and a positive game flow for Brown who is could go for 10+ yards and a TD in his third straight game of 2024 this week.
Low End: Christian Watson ($4,900)
Jordan Love has now thrown 12 TD passes over his last four starts and seems unlikely to slow down in this spot against a Texans defense that allowed Drake Maye to pick them apart late for three passing TDs last week. While there is some clarity needed on who is going to playing for Green Bay this week at WR, it seems likely we’ll see Watson suit up again, who battled through an ankle injury to play 44 snaps and convert three of his four targets into three receptions, 68 yards and a TD.
If Jayden Reed or Dontayvion Wicks (both questonable) were to miss this game, then it’s likely Watson’s usage would also take a step up and open him up for an even bigger sort of day. As it is now, his sub-5k salary only means we need a long catch of two for him to hit three times, but with his history of catching TDs from Love so prominent (seven TDs in last 12 games) there is not much downside to using him as a value option.
Tight End
Theo Johnson ($2,800)
Johnson is coming off back-to-back games where he topped 30 yards and has now converted on his last eight targets. Despite the solid efforts of late and the growing connection with Daniel Jones ($5,400), who isn’t a great sideline thrower, or downfield passer, Johnson’s salary is still well under $3,000 in this spot against the Eagles, who remain just 26th in EPA per dropback this season.
Johnson’s target share may be hurt this week by the return of Malik Nabers ($7,500), but with the Eagles likely to focus in on him, there is also opportunity for Johnson to continue to see solid targeting and some more open field opportunities. With Nabers likely to be a popular draw against the Eagles in big field GPPs, using Johnson in non-Nabers lineups also provides you with great leverage on the field as the ownership gap between them is likely to be massive. It’s a risky play, but the low price on Johnson makes him a viable punt target and one that has a great game theory aspect to it given how popular the top WR on his team is likely to be this week.
Defense/Special Teams
Packers D/ST ($2,900)
The Packers have a tough matchup on paper with CJ Stroud, but without Nico Collins, the Texans pass game is more limited. The Patriots held Stroud to just 6.19 yards per attempt last week and a 64% completion rate, in a game where New England’s offense just handed the Texans the game. This week, the Texans will likely need Stroud to drop back more often, given how potent Green Bay’s offense is, and that’s likely to create a good opportunity for the Packers DST to score points.
Green Bay has a decent pass rush (12th in sacks per game) and have been far better at creating turnovers this season under new DC Jeff Hafley, who has his unit tops in the league with 17 turnovers to date. The Texans may be without OT Laremy Tunsil in this game and have allowed the 12th most sacks per game to date this season. Green Bay isn’t super cheap, but they’ll be extremely low-owned in big field GPPs and have the upside in this matchup against a weakened Houston offense to go off and provide the kind of 5x return that can win GPPs.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers sho
