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Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
The Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 +130
If you read my article yesterday, you’ll know we took this bet last night. We won it with ease, as the Dodgers clobbered the Mets by a score of 10-2. This Dodgers club is winning by a massive margin in the playoffs, which now sits at 6.1 runs. As you’d imagine, with a margin like that, they’re cashing the Run Line bets. Tonight, it could be more of the same, as they’ll be facing the lefty, David Peterson.
I would expect the leash to be quick on Peterson, who has been used in more of a relief role in the playoffs. He hasn’t thrown more than three innings in an outing through four appearances. He does have the ability to go deep into games, as he threw at least 6.1 innings three times in September. I simply don’t know how deep the Mets want or expect him to go. Nonetheless, it’s going to be the same situation as last night. He’s a lefty that throws a lot of sinkers. That didn’t go well for Jose Quintana last night and I expect the same for Peterson. Tonight’s Dodgers lineup has a combined .458 wOBA with a .240 ISO against that pitch against lefties. This doesn’t include Freddie Freeman, who may not play tonight. I can’t imagine much success for Peterson.
I’m expecting Peterson out of this game rather quickly, which means a lot of the Mets bullpen. There are reports saying that Kodai Senga will be available in relief. I don’t view that as a positive. The Dodgers roughed him up for three runs through just 1.1 innings earlier this series. If they’re starting with Peterson and then going to Senga, that’s two good matchups for the Dodgers. With Jack Flaherty looking sharp earlier in the series against the Mets, I think it’s curtains for the Mets season.
The Pick: Teoscar Hernandez over 1.5 H/R/RBI -105
Hernandez is a perfect example of someone who benefits from a loaded Dodgers lineup. In the playoffs, he’s slashing just .188/.350/.375 through nine games. Not great numbers, right? But he STILL has two home runs, seven RBIs and five runs scored. He’s been doing the bare minimum and still putting up good offensive numbers.
That’s why, despite not collecting a ton of offense, I still like him to go over 1.5 H/R/RBI at almost even money. Peterson opening is a good matchup for him, as he owns a .433 wOBA and a .183 ISO against sinkers from a lefty. If and when we get to Senga, Hernandez has good numbers against the four-seam and cutter, which Senga throws a combined 64% of the time. At the rate both Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts have been getting on base in front of him, Hernandez should most certainly have some RBI potential. It feels like a perfect storm for Hernandez tonight.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
