We have a great matchup on Sunday afternoon, as the 5-1 Texans travel to Green Bay to face the 4-2 Packers. Here’s why I’m backing the Pack at home in this one.
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers
Packers -2.5 (-120)
1-unit
This is a much bigger game for the Packers, who technically sit in a tie for last place in the loaded NFC North. The numbers on Green Bay are a bit skewed for the season, as Jordan Love missed a couple of games early in the season. Now that Love is back in stride, it’s time for the Packers to rip off some wins. You could make the argument that at full strength, Green Bay is in the conversation for the best team in the NFC.
The Packers were a play or two away from beating the Eagles in the opener, and almost pulled the comeback in a close loss to the Vikings. They have been right there in their losses, and finally dominated on Sunday when they hosted the Cardinals. The Texans have some narrow wins against the Colts, Jaguars and Bears, and got fortunate in their win over the Bills. Houston won and covered against the Patriots last week, but I can’t give them much credit for beating a rookie quarterback in his first start, particularly when the Pats turned it over four times.
We saw the Texans go to Minnesota earlier in the season, and they got absolutely dominated — 34-7. This is a pretty similar matchup for Houston here. The Texans likely go on to win the weak AFC South, but I think they’ll struggle against the NFL’s elites, particularly on the road.
The Packers are the better team and the more desperate team in this spot. Houston is playing its second road game in a row, while the Pack are home for the second week in a row. Good spot to lay less than a field goal with Green Bay.
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