We have a Super Bowl rematch in Week 7, as the Chiefs travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers. The Niners have been dinged up to start the season, but are 3-3 and now trending in the right direction. The Chiefs are a perfect 5-0 and are off their bye, but this is a tough road game. Here’s my angle on the Niners.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
49ers 1H ML (-120)
1.5-units
You’re going to hear all about the fact that Kansas City is coming off the bye and an underdog this week. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have been fantastic off a bye in their careers. Mahomes has been even more elite when priced as an underdog. But that stat seems played out at this point. I was on the Chiefs in the Super Bowl as a short dog, but I would’ve also happily bet them as a short favorite. This time around KC is +1.5, so the game is essentially a pick’em.
The 49ers last played a Thursday night game, so they’ve also had extra time to prepare for this one. Last season the Niners had a similar revenge spot. San Francisco lost to the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, and then absolutely slaughtered Philly in the regular season rematch. I do like the Niners in the game here, but I do think the first half is the better look from a betting standpoint.
While the Niners are 3-3 on the season, they can be tough to trust in the second half. The Rams and Cardinals both had huge comebacks against them, and the Seahawks started to comeback last week before San Francisco ultimately closed the door. Mahomes is the king of the comeback, so I’ll eliminate the second half of this game.
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS on the season, but just 2-3 ATS in the first half. Slow starts have been a theme for the Chiefs for years. Despite some bad losses, the Niners get out and rolling in games, and are 5-1 first half ATS this season. In a big revenge game, I expect the Niners to be sharp early here.
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