After some very noteworthy and highly discussed struggles at the plate, Aaron Judge finally hit his first home run of the 2024 postseason on Tuesday evening in a Game 2 victory over the Guardians.
Judge is +275 on the DraftKings Sportsbook to do it again this evening in Game 3. Can the former MVP pull it off? Let’s dive into the numbers.
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Look, there’s not a lot of categories that Aaron Judge didn’t lead the league, but it’s worth pointing out how amazing the All-Star was against left-handed pitching. In 184 plate appearances within the split, Judge registered a .424 ISO and a 236 wRC+. His .482 expected wOBA versus southpaws was also the highest qualified mark among all hitters. With Judge hitting his first home run of the postseason in Game 2, he broke the seal, and we all know how quickly the MVP frontrunner can get on a hot streak. In fact, Judge went deep in back-to-back contests 22 times during the regular season.
Then there’s the Matthew Boyd element. While Boyd did look good in his eight starts with Cleveland in August and September — and he’s yet to allow a home run in his 6.2 innings of work in the postseason — the long ball has often been an issue for the veteran lefty. For his career, Boyd is surrendering 1.56 opponent home runs per nine. Among the 68 active pitchers with at least 750 innings under their belt, only Yusei Kikuchi is conceding bombs at a higher rate.
Suffice to say, I think there’s a pretty good chance at least one fan leaves Game 3 with an Aaron Judge home run ball this evening.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
