Arkansas hosts LSU in a big-time SEC showdown. Here is how to bet the game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
LSU (-2.5) at Arkansas o/u 55.5
LSU Team Breakdown
LSU pulled off an emotional comeback overtime win over Ole Miss last week. It was a pivotal game in terms of making the College Football Playoff for both teams. Despite not leading the entire game, LSU pulled off the win in overtime. They have another massive game on the road against Texas A&M next weekend as well. That makes this a really tough spot on the road against an unranked Arkansas team. LSU could be lacking a bit of focus coming into this matchup.
The LSU passing offense has been great this season, led by QB Garrett Nussmeier. However, they have struggled to run the ball which has hurt them at times this season. Defensively, LSU has a lot of issues. They rank 99th in the country in defensive EPA/play and they are vulnerable against the run and the pass. They struggled against South Carolina, who have a run-heavy offense similar to Arkansas’; that could be an issue for LSU.
Arkansas Team Breakdown
Arkansas brought back Bobby Petrino to run their offense, and it has been a massive success so far this season. Arkansas managed to pull off an upset against Tennessee, and they were very competitive in both games they lost this season. The Razorbacks had a bye week after their big win over Tennessee to prepare for this game against LSU. That gives them a huge advantage since LSU had to play such an emotional game last week.
Arkansas is 19th in the country in EPA/rush and they have become a really tough offense to stop. However, the defense has almost been more impressive in recent weeks. Arkansas totally shut down Tennessee in their last game, and they have only allowed 16.3 PPG in their three SEC games so far this season.
Pick and Prediction
Arkansas has a massive advantage in terms of the spot. LSU may have a hangover from their big win over Ole Miss, and is in a bit of a look-ahead situation with Texas A&M next week. Meanwhile, Arkansas pulled off a big upset win and then had a bye week to ride that momentum but also lock in and prepare for this LSU game.
Arkansas also has some edges on the field. Arkansas has had a very good run defense this year and they should be able to eliminate the LSU rushing attack without having to commit too many bodies. That will allow them to focus on limiting the Nussmeier passing attack. Offensively, Arkansas should be able to run the ball effectively against a porous LSU defense. Typically, the team that can run the ball better and defend the run better will win the game. Arkansas should be that team on Saturday.
Best Bets: Arkansas +2.5
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