We’re back for Week 7 after what I’d call a three-for-four week. We hit on starting the Bears and Chargers defenses, which both had great days against their hapless opponents, as we expected. We sat the Broncos, and for good reason.
The Niners D/ST did end with 8.0 FPTs in standard leagues on Thursday Night Football last week, however. I advocated we sit them. I’ll be tough on myself here and say an 8.0-FPT week is not sit-worthy for a defense. The Niners had Geno Smith looking foolish at times in a way we’ve yet to see this year.
Anyhoo. Onto Week 7!
Start ‘Em
Detroit Lions D/ST (at Minnesota Vikings; 45.4% rostered)
Again, the case of another highly-added defense this week: 19.2% of that roster percentage came from this week’s waiver rush. Which is, of course, sad, only because the week we all want to run this unit out in our starting lineups is the first one they’ll be without Aidan Hutchinson indefinitely. Heart goes out to that guy.
Nonetheless, I like this unit’s chances against a Sam Darnold that might(?) be regressing to league-average, here. He stunk in the Jets game, and was only average in the Green Bay game. The Vikings are coming off their bye, and this isn’t a Lions team that’s ready to entertain a letdown spot after drubbing the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football in Week 6.
Expect Dan Campbell and Aaron Glenn to have his Hutchinson-less unit frothing at the mouth. There’s some joke to be made here about cowardly lions and it being Halloween season and seeing ghosts, but it’d likely be a mouthful.
Take the group of men who just lost a beloved brother to hit the field Sunday with a scary force of purpose.
Los Angeles Rams D/ST (vs. Las Vegas Raiders; 5.3% rostered)
It would seem about 4.6 of that 5.3% comes from adding this week, so a few sharps are already rostering this defense this week. And, really, why wouldn’t you? This isn’t a Raiders offense that is in any way, shape, or form prepared for a professionally-coached defensive unit.
And, believe me, this unit will have been coached up for this game specifically. Aidan O’Connell specifically. Brock Bowers, etc. Because this is a Rams home game in a must-win situation for this entire epoch of the Rams. If they go 1-5 after the BYE against these Raiders, they’ll blow the whole place (read: roster) up.
Potential early goodbyes for Stafford and Kupp are not anything Les Snead and Sean McVay are going to put in the hands of this defense. This game goes one of two ways: either the Rams beat the brakes off the Raiders early and it’s low-stakes snaps for the defense for 50%+ of the game, or the Rams win in a low-scoring, long-offensive-possession slugfest.
Either way, the Rams D/ST should float around 12+ FPTs with Jared Verse pressuring this patchwork OL.
Sit ’em
Minnesota Vikings D/ST (vs. Detroit Lions; 67.3% rostered)
I guess we’re expecting the Vikings to crash down to earth a bit on Sunday, huh? Maybe that’s just because they weren’t making any highlights last week on bye. But it just feels like this is going to be a really tough matchup against a Lions team that hung 47 on the Dallas Cowboys.
Again—it’s just about the Lions. This is not a hangover team. This is a momentum team. The engines are firing on all cylinders and Goff &co. will head to another dome (not unlike home) and execute Ben Johnson’s offense surgically.
It’s a huge divisional matchup, so scores will likely be harder to come by than we think. It may come down to both these defenses. But I like Minnesota’s unit to score fewer fantasy points than Detroit’s in this one. Vikings get the bench.
Baltimore Ravens D/ST (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers; 63.0% rostered)
This is the 19th-ranked defense in all of fantasy football right now. Why in the world, other than vestiges of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, are they owned in more than half of leagues?
In four of the six weeks in the 2024 NFL season thus far, Baltimore’s D/ST has scored five-or-fewer fantasy points. That’s not rosterable.
Now they’re going up against one of the most-gelled offensive units in the league, in a primetime game, away. They’ll either score 20.0 FPTs or 2.0. I bet it’s closer to the latter.
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