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Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
Dodgers -1.5 (+130)
I’ll be totally honest, I don’t know what version of Yoshinobu Yamamoto is going to show up tonight. Is it the one we just saw against the Padres who shut them out for five innings? Or is it the one who gave up five runs through three innings in that same series? I really don’t know! But, what I do know, is that when the Dodgers win in these playoffs, they win big.
The Dodgers have eight playoff games under their belt with a record of 5-3 in those games. In the wins, they’re doing so by an average of 5.8 runs. Big wins, right? I think they have a really good chance of doing that tonight as well. Jose Quintana is kind of like Matt Boyd. His recent numbers have been incredible and his recent run is a big reason the Mets are here. However, this might be his toughest challenge to date. The Dodgers have CRUSHED sinkers from left-handed pitching this season. Tonight’s expected lineup has a combined .439 wOBA with a .255 ISO against it. No one in this lineup has a wOBA lower than .324 against this pitch. I’m betting the Dodgers to win by at least two runs.
Dodgers Over 11.5 Total Bases (-120)
This, of course, coincides with the Dodgers run line. If I like them to win by at least two runs, then I must think they’ll be offense tonight. As I’ve mentioned, Quintana has been great but someone has to give eventually. During the regular season, his 3.75 ERA with accompanied by an xERA of 4.59 and a 4.44 xFIP. It tells me he’s been good but not THAT good. The Dodgers are simply too good of an offense to get shutdown by him tonight in my opinion. They’ve also been hitting for a ton of power, which is why I like going over their team total bases. In the eight playoffs games they’ve played, the Dodgers have hit 13 home runs. There is no quicker way to hit the over on the total bases than with home runs.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
