A couple of weeks ago there was a chance this was going to be a top-five matchup in Knoxville, but Alabama and Tennessee have not been playing their best football over the past couple of weeks. Both went down in massive upsets two weeks ago, with the Crimson Tide falling to Vanderbilt in a hangover spot following their win over Georgia, then that night Arkansas took down the Vols. Last week, both of these teams were fortunate not to go on two-game losing streaks. Alabama barely survived South Carolina at home, in a game the Tide made some very poor decisions. Tennessee needed overtime to claw by against a very poor Florida team, and probably should have lost the game in regulation.
Nonetheless, this is still a massive game in the SEC, and a chance for one of these teams to get a win that would propel them towards a College Football Playoff birth.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers
Alabama ML (-135) 1-unit
Saturday (3:30pm ET)
I put this one out on Twitter earlier in the week at a price I liked on the moneyline, but I am good laying up to -3 or -150 on the moneyline — whichever you prefer. I get that Alabama is tough to trust right now, but I really don’t like what I’ve seen from Tennessee recently.
The Vols lit college football on fire the first three weeks of the season offensively, putting up 69 on Chattanooga, 71 on Kent State and 51 on NC State. We now know those first two teams are two of the worst in college football, and the Wolfpack wound up being one of the worst teams in the ACC. Against more reasonable competition, this Tennessee offense has come to a screeching halt — 25 points against Oklahoma, 14 at Arkansas and 23 in overtime against Florida. Going off the 17 points the Vols scored in regulation in that game, Tennessee is averaging just 18.6 points per game excluding overtime in its last three games.
Now, Alabama has certainly been exposed on defense recently, but it’s not like they’ve been giving up concerning scores, aside from one game. The 40 points the Tide gave up at Vanderbilt is extremely concerning, but it also involved some fluke plays. I’ll give ‘Bama the pass going on the road following the Georgia win. Outside of that game, the Tide have given up 34 points to Georgia (an elite offense that was playing catchup all game), 25 to South Carolina (which had 19 prior to recovering an onside kick), 10 to Wisconsin, 16 to USF and shutout Western Kentucky. Is the ‘Bama defense good? No, but it’s not as bad as the numbers might make it seem.
Tennessee on the road will be a test for sure, but I expect the Tide to be able to score enough to get the win here. Again, some fluky turnovers held ‘Bama to 27 points last week, but prior to that, it had scored 35-plus in every game this season (averaging close to 45). Alabama has an explosive offense, and will put points on the board. I’ll trust that they are able to figure out enough defensively to slow a Tennessee offense that has run into a wall the last few weeks.
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