There’s a pair of interesting trends surrounding this game that provide a parlay option for those who like to live on the wild side. But, we’ll get to that later in this Broncos vs. Saints preview.
First, let’s take stock of how bettors are attacking the moneyline, spread and total for Broncos vs. Saints.
Game splits
Moneyline
The Saints have emerged as the popular pick to win on Thursday, receiving 59% of the moneyline bets for the game. However, those plays have only accounted for 39% of the handle.
Denver appears to be the sharp play, generating 61% of the moneyline handle on 41% of the bets.
Spread
The Broncos, who are 2.5-point favorites, appear to be the sharp play here, as well. Denver also accounts for 61% of this game’s spread handle, but on 47% of the spread bets.
However, the Broncos opened as 1.5-point underdogs. Some of those Denver bets may have come before the underdog-to-favorite flip.
Total
After opening at 38.5, this total dropped to 36.5. Since that initial decrease, the game total has been bouncing back and forth between 37 and 37.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The general dip from 38.5 tracks when looking at the betting splits. The under has only seen 34% of the game total bets, but those plays have accounted for 45% of the handle. While more handle has gone toward the over, there appears to be a sharp lean toward the under. If the near-split maintains in the handle, the total shouldn’t fluctuate more than it already is.
System to note
Since 2021, there have been seven TNF games played between non-conference opponents in which the AFC team was favored. The under went 7-0 in those games.
Trends to note
Now, it’s time to make good on those two trends that were mentioned off the top.
- The Broncos have failed to cover in the last six road games that they were favored.
- The Saints have lost the last six TNF games in which they were underdogs.
The likely outcome is that one of those two trends will end tonight and one will maintain. But there is a scenario in which both could maintain. Betting on that small window of the Broncos winning and the Saints covering provides +1600 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here are a few more trends to note as we close out this Broncos vs. Saints preview:
- Jamaal Williams has logged nine-plus rushing yards in his last 17 games against AFC opponents. (Rushing yards O/U is 8.5.)
- The last five times the Broncos were favored coming off a loss, they won the first quarter.
- In those same five games just mentioned, the Broncos scored the game’s first touchdown.
- The Saints have lost the first half in their last five TNF games.
- Alvin Kamara has logged 56+ receiving yards in his last four Week 7 games. (Receiving yards O/U is 36.5.)
- In each of the last four games that Denver was favored after a loss, Jaleel McLaughlin rushed for 37-plus yards. (Rushing yards O/U is 22.5.)
