Two struggling offenses meet at the Superdome when the 3-3 Broncos take on the 2-4 Saints. Denver enters the contest as three-point favorites, with the over/under set at 37 points.
The Broncos, fresh off a 23-16 loss against the Chargers, will hope to rebound against a banged-up Saints squad. After losing quarterback Derek Carr (oblique) last week, New Orleans announced that it would be without star wide receivers Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee). That leaves rookie QB Spencer Rattler with a difficult task in his second career start.
Given all the uncertainty surrounding the Saints, it’s best to avoid this entire offense sans Alvin Kamara. Betting on game script isn’t always a precise science, but there’s a real chance the Broncos and their stifling defense (4th-fewest points allowed) can get out to an early lead. That should favor Denver’s running backs, especially starter Javonte Williams.
New Orleans’ run defense is vulnerable; last weekend, the Buccaneers tallied a whopping 277 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the Saints have given up 5.2 yards per carry and 0.10 EPA per carry, both second-worst in the league. The Broncos have averaged a modest 4.3 yards per carry (18th in NFL), but they’ve gained over 100 rushing yards in each of their last four games.
Javonte Williams has had mixed success so far. Denver’s RB1 hasn’t run the ball particularly well (3.6 YPC), but he’s thrived as a pass catcher (20 receptions for 143 yards). It’s fair to be skeptical of the fourth-year back’s touchdown chances considering he hasn’t reached the end zone this season. However, he’s had nine rushing attempts inside the 20, more than anyone else on the roster.
If Williams is going to score this season, it should come against a New Orleans team with a bad defensive line and a backup quarterback. At +150 anytime touchdown odds, the Broncos’ running back is a smart primetime play.
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