Dallas is fresh of a trip to the NBA Finals, and made a big addition (at least in name) in Klay Thompson. Generally, a team with a young superstar like Luka Doncic can improve off that run the following season, but I’m not sold all the pieces are there. Let’s breakdown the win total for the Mavericks.
Dallas Mavericks UNDER 49.5 Wins (+100) — 1-unit
Doncic is fantastic, let’s get that out of the way first. He averaged just shy of 34 points last season, and was 0.2 assists per game and 0.8 rebounds away from averaging a triple-double. Doncic also played a career-high 37.5 minutes per game in the regular season, and his 70 games played were the most since his rookie season. But factor in the run to the NBA Finals, and Luka is off by far the most games and minutes in his young career.
Doncic isn’t exactly an iron man, and already had a minor setback with his calf in training camp. I’m not here to slander what Luka can do on the court, but I do think it’s fair to question if Dallas will be a bit more cautious with him this season after how much he played last season. It’s all about keeping him fresh for the postseason.
Then there’s Kyrie Irving, who I have given a ton of credit for humbly accepting the role as a No. 2 in Dallas, but will things fall apart for him? They have at every other stop, so I think we have to factor in the idea that Irving could quit on this team at any time. He played 58 games last season, which isn’t many, and that was still the most Kyrie had played in a season since his final year in Boston in 2018-19. Again, if things are going well, the Mavericks can be a threat in the playoffs. But Irving and Doncic are threats to miss time in the regular season.
Dallas’ season turned for the better after acquiring Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. Both guys are back this season, but don’t overlook how much of an impact featuring Derrick Jones Jr. made for that late season run Dallas had. Jones is off to the Clippers now, and the other key departure is Tim Hardaway Jr.
The additions for the Mavericks were Spencer Dinwiddie, Markieff Morris and the headliner is Thompson. Those all feel like veterans that are trending downward in their careers. We specifically know the struggles that Thompson went through in his final season with the Warriors, and there’s no reason to believe it should get better in Dallas. Thompson lost a step as a scorer and defender, and even his spot up shooting numbers took a tumble.
If the Mavericks are fully healthy come playoff time, I’m not saying they can’t make a run. But I will say that with the pieces they have in place, it’s hard to see the Mavs matching last season’s 50-wins in a stacked Western Conference.
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app on Apple or Google!
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
