Michigan looks to keep its season alive against Illinois on Saturday. Here is how to bet the game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Michigan (-3.5) at Illinois o/u 43.5
Michigan needs to win the rest of its games if it wants to make the Big Ten Championship Game or the College Football Playoff. It starts here on the road against Illinois. The Fighting Illini have exceeded expectations so far this season thanks to some solid defensive play and much-improved quarterback play from Luke Altmyer. Meanwhile, Michigan is starting its third different quarterback of the season after Jack Tuttle came in mid-game against Washington two weeks ago.
Tuttle provides the best passing option of the three quarterbacks Michigan has tried this season and last week, Michigan had the bye week to implement the new offense it wants to run with Tuttle. The passing threat that Tuttle can provide should make it easier for Michigan to do what it really wants, which is to run the football. Michigan will want to pound the rock against this Illinois defense that has had issues against the run this season.
Illinois ranks 76th in defensive EPA/rush and was shredded by Purdue on the ground last week. The threat of the passing game will require Illinois to at least respect Tuttle, which wasn’t the case with Alex Orji or Davis Warren. That should open up more running lanes for the Wolverines and get them easy third downs. That is one thing they’ve done well this season, ranking 18th in the country in third-down distance. Third-down distance could be the story of this game, in fact.
Michigan’s offense is 18th in average third-down distance while Illinois’ defense is 129th. Meanwhile, the Illinois offense is 108th in third-down distance and the Michigan defense is 29th. Luke Altmyer has had an issue taking sacks this season and Michigan’s pass rush should be able to get after him and put Illinois behind the sticks. On the other side, Michigan will be able to run the ball efficiently on early downs and set up third-and-short where it could either run the ball again or Tuttle will be in easy passing situations.
This Michigan team is flawed but this is a good matchup for it. The Wolverines will be able to run the ball efficiently on offense and they will be able to get after the quarterback on defense to help out their secondary. Michigan will be better in the trenches and that will lead to it picking up an essential road win and cover in this game.
Best Bet: Michigan -3
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