Hope springs eternal in the offseason, and that’s especially true in fantasy basketball. While it’s important to take stock of players that are being undervalued, smart managers also need to separate preseason hype from reality.
Heading into the 2024-25 season, here are three names going far too early in drafts across all scoring formats.
Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers (ADP: 8.3)
Let’s discuss the (literal) biggest guy on the list first. Joel Embiid, despite all the criticism, is one of the best basketball players on Earth. The former MVP was a monster when he played last season, averaging 34.7 PPG, 11.0 RPG, and 5.6 APG on 52.9/38.8/88.3 shooting splits. There’s just one problem with that sentence — when he plays.
Embiid suited up in just 39 contests last season due to a lingering knee injury. Over the past eight seasons, the dominant big man has played more than 60 games just four times. With the 76ers eyeing an elusive NBA title, there is little reason for the coaching staff to push their superstar during the regular season. Joel seems fine with this, telling ESPN’s Tim Bontemps that he’s unlikely to play in any back-to-backs for the rest of his career.
That’s a smart approach by Philly’s front office, but it’s a clear sign to stay away in fantasy. Even if Embiid does replicate his monster stat line from last year (no guarantee), he’s simply a poor bet to play more than 60 games. Ignore the back-to-back restrictions and consider this: we haven’t even tipped off the season, and there’s already injury concerns. Let this be someone else’s first-round headache.
Deandre Ayton, C, Portland Trailblazers (ADP: 60.6)
In a remarkably short amount of time, Deandre Ayton has become somewhat of an afterthought. While productive over six seasons, the former number one overall pick hasn’t developed into a superstar. Still, the seven-footer did manage to put up quality numbers after being traded to Portland. In his first season with the Trailblazers, he put up 16.7 PPG and 11.1 RPG on 57% from the field.
However, Ayton’s stat line is somewhat misleading. His post-All Star break numbers (22.7 PPG, 12.5 RPG) were inflated due to a lack of surrounding scoring options. The Blazers had injury issues to most of their major scorers, including Jerami Grant (54 games played), Anfernee Simons (46), and Shaedon Sharpe (32). Ayton’s own injury issues are worth noting as well, as he only played in 55 games. To make matters worse, Portland drafted UConn center Donovan Clingan with the seventh overall pick in the NBA draft. At first glance, the move looks to be a clear pivot to a more defensive-minded big man.
Overall, this entire roster just feels way too crowded. I’d expect Ayton to still get close to 30 minutes a night, but he’s probably the third option on a team that will look to supplant him with their prized rookie sooner rather than later.
Cam Thomas, Brooklyn Nets (ADP: 70.4)
Every year, the fantasy hoops community seems to fall in love with a volume scorer on a bad team. Last year it was Jordan Poole, a trap yours truly fell for in the fourth round. Not again!
This year’s version of Poole is Cam Thomas, someone who can get buckets but not much else. Last season, the guard put up 22.5 PPG on 44.2/36.4/85.6 shooting splits while taking 18 field goal attempts per game. That number is sure to go up even further now that the Nets have traded his former teammate Mikal Bridges to the Knicks. Increased opportunity is key in basketball, but does this automatically make Thomas someone worth drafting in the sixth-to-eighth round range?
If Cam’s shooting splits were better, you could talk me into drafting him. Unfortunately, he’s a streaky player who offers next to nothing other than volume scoring. Thomas’ per 36 marks of 3.3 AST, 3.7 REB and 0.8 STL are mediocre at best, and his 2.5 3PM falls well short of what you’d like to see in a score-first guard. At his current price, this is not someone any category league managers should consider drafting. Even in points leagues, Thomas leaves a lot to be desired.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is barmy) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
