We’re back with the fourth event on the PGA’s fall schedule this week in the Shriners Children’s Open, and this week the players head to Vegas for a shootout in the desert. The venue is TPC Summerlin, a 7,200-7,300 yard Par 71 that is situated at about 2,700 feet of altitude, which means the ball flies further than usual here, giving the players an added advantage on this already gettable course.
Summerlin is a pure shotmakers’ venue where short to mid-iron excellence is a must. Players still need to be decent enough off the tee, but as long as they’re hitting fairways, the power advantage this week is mitigated by the altitude, leveling the playing field for short hitters. The last three winners have all gained over 5.0 strokes on approach and putting, so solid iron play and players who give themselves a ton of birdie looks will excel once the event starts.
Summerlin almost always yields a huge number of birdies per round. In 2022, the cutline came in at 4-under par. That’s something to keep in mind when making your Pick6 lineups. Even a slight deviation in birdie totals between players can be a huge thing to exploit this week, and a potential edge to take advantage of.
On that last note, there is a little bit of wind in the forecast for Thursday afternoon to be aware of, which could expose the afternoon wave to slightly worse conditions. Since we’re focusing on Round 1 picks, it’s something to keep note of as I’m far more likely to be bullish on an early starter this week (and take the Less Than on their Round 1 strokes for example) than a late starter.
Let’s get to this Week’s First Round Picks below.
Andrew Putnam More Than 4.5 Birdies or Better
Putnam is playing in his second fall series event this week. The former Barracuda winner finished T44 at the Procore but gained over 2.6 strokes on approach in the effort and is generally one of the better putters on the PGA. He’s also played the Shriners six times previously and had plenty of success at this venue, landing T11 and T12 finishes in 2021 and 2022 respectively.
This play is more about the number than anything, though. Putnam’s birdie total is set at 4.5 which is a full point lower than a couple of the other top players in the field. While that may be warranted if we were at the US Open or a major, Putnam on a target golf course like Summerlin has as much upside as almost anyone in the field, so I don’t think that big a discount on his birdie or better total is warranted. He’s well-rested and has a solid history in low-scoring events like the Shriners making him a player I am perfectly fine being bullish on to outperform his first-round BoB total of 4.5.
Doug Ghim More Than 4.5 Birdies or Better
Ghim hit for us in Round 1 last week, going for seven birdies or better in Round 1 at Black Desert (his opening round total was 4.5 there as well). The American ended the week in T26 but gained 5.4 strokes on approach, losing 3.0 strokes on the greens. Ghim is always an adventure with the flat stick, but like Putnam, he’s also a player who tends to thrive on these shorter courses where accuracy and precision matter more than pure power off the tee. He’s a terrific iron player who ranks second in approach proximity and third in opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds.
Yes, he could run ice cold with the putter for a round again, but generally speaking, he is going to have far better looks (at birdie) than the majority of the field on most holes. Given he has an early tee time on Thursday (and should be in calmer conditions) there is little to no reason not to run it back and see if he can’t produce 5.0 or more BoB for us again in Round 1 this week.
JT Poston Less Than 68.5 Strokes
Poston is a bit of a question mark given that he hasn’t played since the BMW Championship. Still, the two-time PGA winner is a master of racking up birdies on these shorter courses and a player who can shoot low rounds just with his putter alone. Given that he hasn’t played yet this fall, his round total for Round 1 is still set at a very generous 68.5, meaning we only need a three-under-par Round 1 from him on Summerlin to hit the Less Than. Overall, he’s been consistent at this venue, producing T20 and T2 finishes at this tournament the last two seasons, with five of his last eight rounds at Summerlin coming in at 68 or better.
Poston is also generally a fast starter and his last two Round 1’s at this venue have produced rounds of 67 and 63. I think he’s a little underrated in general this week and with his Round 1 total set a full stroke lower than a handful of other players, targeting him to open with a round of 3-under par or better feels like another strong play for Thursday.
Cameron Davis Less Than 68.5 Strokes
Davis is another veteran coming in off a longer layoff. The winner of the Rocket Mortgage just a couple of months ago, Davis was snubbed from the Presidents Cup team this fall, so he may have a bit of a chip on his shoulder as he returns to action. The Australian has turned into a solid all-around player, and comes in ranked 3rd in Strokes Gained around the green stats over the last 24 rounds, and 2nd in Birdies or Better gained.
While I’d likely prefer to take the More Than on a Davis BoB total, his Round 1 stroke total is also sitting at a relatively high number, given we have multiple players set at 67.5. The Aussie is another player who has had success at Summerlin in the past, and posted a T7 at this event last season; shooting four rounds of 67 or better in the process. As long as this number is at 68.5, taking the Less Than on Davis looks like a solid edge to add to cards.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above
