The NLCS switches coasts for Game 3 on Wednesday, shifting from Los Angeles to New York. The Mets got a huge win in Game 2 on Monday to level the series at 1-1, and they’ll look to hold onto home-field advantage as they give the ball to Luis Severino for a home start against Walker Buehler.
The series’ first two games have had plenty of storylines to follow. In Game 1, the Dodgers rolled to a 9-0 victory as their scoreless streak reached a historic 33 scoreless innings. That streak ended in a hurry in Game 2 when the Mets homered early and often and held on for a 7-3 win. The series still feels like it could easily go either way, but one team will take the lead with a crucial win this Wednesday. Let’s break it down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $175K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st] (LAD @ NYM).
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Pick
Francisco Lindor ($14,400): Depending on how the series plays out, Lindor’s leadoff homer in Game 2 could be the turning point of the series. He finished 2-for-4 with 18 fantasy points in that contest and continues to be a huge catalyst in the Mets’ surprising playoff run. He had 25 fantasy points with a pivotal Grand Slam in Game 4 of the series against the Phillies and also reached double-digit fantasy points in two other playoff games.
In the postseason, he is averaging 10 fantasy points per game while going 8-for-34 (.235) with three doubles, eight walks, and two homers. He has a .357 wOBA in the playoffs, carrying over his success from September. He was limited by injury for part of the month but went 6-for-17 (.353) after returning with a .474 wOBA.
I wouldn’t go near either starting pitcher as a Captain’s Pick. I especially like attacking Walker Buehler ($10,400), who has a good postseason history but has struggled this year while returning from a second Tommy John surgery. He gave up six runs to the Padres in his most recent start and had a 5.38 ERA with a 5.54 FIP in the regular season and has been even worse in the postseason with a 10.80 ERA and 6.37 FIP. Lindor is a great place to start stacking the Mets and gives your lineup both a high ceiling and a high floor given how involved he has been since returning from that late-season back issue.
UTIL Plays
Luis Severino ($11,000): Since I’m passing on Buehler, Severino is an option I can consider in my UTIL spot. The former Yankee gave up three runs to the Brewers in the Wild Card round and three runs to the Phillies in the NLDS, but he went six innings in each start, earning 10.9 and 17.9 fantasy points. Both those starts were on the road, though, and he was significantly better at home this season with a 2.96 ERA and 4.00 FIP compared to a 5.00 road ERA and 4.45 road FIP during the regular season. Facing the Dodgers’ lineup is a tough task for Severino, but he’s been in good form overall and has proven he can grind out innings and avoid catastrophe innings.
Mark Vientos ($7,600): Like many of the Mets, Vientos finished the regular season strong and has carried that success into the postseason. The 24-year-old hit .266 with a .356 wOBA after being called up. Six of his 27 homers came in the last month of the season, and he has continued slugging in the postseason, smashing three home runs and averaging 11.7 fantasy points per game in the playoffs. Since he has been hitting second, stacking him and Lindor as a 1-2 punch at the top of the order is a strong start to your Game 3 roster.
Gavin Lux ($5,600): Lux wasn’t able to start Game 2 after having to leave Game 1 with hip-flexor tightness, but he’s expected to be back in the batting order in Game 3, according to Dave Roberts. Lux has gone 5-for-19 with two walks and a home run this postseason. He finished the regular season going 9-for-26 (.346) with a .409 wOBA over his last eight games and continues to be great value in the postseason. Since I’m leaning into the Mets, I’ll be looking for cheaper options for the Dodgers to give me some exposure and fulfill the requirement of having a player on both sides of Game 3.
Fades
Will Smith ($7,400): I already said above that I’m fading Walker Buehler and stacking the Mets against him. Another player I’m out on for Game 3 is Buehler’s catcher, Will Smith. Smith went 0-for-7 in the first two games of the series with three strikeouts and a walk. He is only 2-for-23 (.087) in the postseason with a single and a home run against the Padres. Severino held righties to a .216 batting average this season while letting lefties hit .269 against him. As a result, I’m looking to Lux or Tommy Edman ($6,600) as my Dodgers targets and passing on Smith while only getting minimal exposure to Teoscar Hernandez ($8,800) and Mookie Betts ($9,200).
THE OUTCOME
The Mets returning home against Buehler should keep this series’ momentum in their favor. The Dodgers have a stacked lineup and we’ve yet to have a Shohei Ohtani “super game” in the postseason. While that will help them make this a long series, I don’t think they’ll be able to win in Game 3 when Citi Field will be rocking and the Mets have a huge starting pitching advantage.
Final Score: Mets 8, Dodgers 4
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $175K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st] (LAD @ NYM).
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
