This game is why sports betting was created. Honestly, thank God for it, because it would be a real chore to watch this Broncos and Saints game otherwise. So shoutout DraftKings Sportsbook! I’ll give you some of my favorite bets you can tail for this Thursday Night game on Amazon Prime.
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Saints +2.5 -110
The spread for this game has been all over the place. We’ve essentially gone from the Saints as -1.5 favorites to +2.5 dogs as I write this Wednesday morning. We’re expecting a messy game, as the game total has settled at 37. While it’s hard to feel great about either side, I’m looking to take the Saints at +2.5.
The Broncos have been winning games because of how good they’ve been defensively. They rank 25th in points per game with 18.7 but have only allowed 16 per game, which is one of the lowest in the league. If you watched the Broncos in Week 6, you can understand why this team struggles offensively. Amongst qualified quarterbacks, Box Nix has one of the lowest adjusted completion percentages (passes thrown on target) at 71.8% (24th of 28th). On top of that, the Broncos have to start backup center Alex Forsyth, after placing Luke Wattenberg on IR. Forsyth immediately allowed four pressures and a sack against the Chargers last week. This could help open up things for a Saints pass rush that’s been subpar to this point.
I think it’s very clear the way to beat the Broncos is on the ground. Granted, the likely loss of CB Patrick Surtain II in this game would open up a lot for the Saints if they were fully healthy. But, they’ll be without their starting quarterback and potentially their top two receivers in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. This could mean a monster workload for Alvin Kamara, who has at least 17 touches in every game this season. He’s also on the injury report with a hand injury but he’s at least been getting in limited work, unlike Olave and Shaheed to this point.
The Broncos have been about a league average defense against the run, but this is where I think the Saints will succeed. He could easily see the most targets in this game should Olave and or Shaheed not play. It’s going to be a tough game on both sides of the ball but I think the Saints keep it close and cover.
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Javonte Williams over 17.5 receiving yards -120
By the time kickoff rolls around, I would imagine this number will be higher. But, as of Wednesday morning, you can grab 17.5 for the Broncos running back. This is a number Williams has easily cleared in three of the six games this season. After only seeing two targets in zero receiving yards in Week 1, Williams has gone on to average 4.8 targets and 28.6 receiving yards per game.
This is a good spot for Williams to continue that trend against a Saints team that’s allowed the sixth most receiving yards to opposing running backs. Currently, they’re averaging just under 43 per game and have caught 26 of their 32 targets. As I mentioned, the Broncos are down to their backup center and Nix has already been under pressure on 34% of his dropbacks. A couple of quick tosses to Williams could easily see him go over this number on Thursday.
Same Game Parlay:
Bo Nix to throw an INT & Spencer Rattler to throw an INT +182
Both quarterbacks to throw an interception are priced at -150 individually. So making a short and sweet SGP with both included gives me +182 on DraftKings Sportsbook. With all the injuries both teams are dealing with, I like pairing these together.
We already saw Rattler throw two in his debut and that was with both Olave and Shaheed active. Imagine if one or both miss this game? The Buccaneers had Rattler under pressure on 38% of his dropbacks last week, which did lead to one of the two interceptions he threw. The Saints offensive line has been ravaged with injuries and honestly, one could say last weeks performance was impressive. Nonetheless, the rookie quarterback is going to make mistakes and with the high turnover amongst his receivers, the opportunities will be there. With such a high probability for both rookies to throw an interception, I like pairing the two for +182.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
