These Saturday night whoppers have been living up to the hype, to say the least. Both Georgia at Alabama and Ohio State at Oregon came down to the final play of the game, with the home team winning winning each top-five matchup. Saturday night brings us another elite matchup, as Georgia will be in Austin to face Texas for the first time as a member of the SEC.
The Bulldogs were actually a slight preseason favorite in this one, but now it’s the 6-0 Longhorns favored by over a field goal at home. Let’s breakdown this massive SEC showdown.
Georgia Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns
Georgia +4 (-110) 2-units
Saturday (7:30pm ET)
I played +3.5 in this one, so I’ll be riding a slightly worse number. While I expected Texas money to pour in this week, I thought we may see some reverse line movement, as was the case last week with Oregon (and we still may). Roughly 80% of the bets were backing Ohio State, yet the Ducks came down from +4.5 to +3 in that one. As of Wednesday afternoon, 59% of the spread bets and 72% of the moneyline bets in this game are on Texas (according to the DK Nation betting splits), which has slightly moved the number that direction.
I understand why the public is pounding the Longhorns in this one. We’ve yet to really see Texas show flaws, and that hasn’t been the case for any other team in the country, including Georgia. The Longhorns have scored at least 31 points in all six games this season, winning all of them by 19 or more points — the closest call being a 31-12 victory at Michigan.
As good as Texas has been, it also hasn’t been tested at all. Michigan has proven to not be a very good team this season, and the other wins have come over Colorado State, UTSA, Louisiana Monroe, Mississippi State and then Oklahoma just last week. As DKN’s own Blake Krass points out, none of those offenses rank in the top-50 of EPA per play this season. Michigan (55th) and Oklahoma (70th) were the best two offenses that Texas has faced. Georgia ranks eighth in EPA per play. This challenge is going to really tell us who Texas is.
While the Longhorns did dismantle Oklahoma last week, the Red River Rivalry is a big game regardless. Coming off playing such an important neutral site game just a week before an even more crucial matchup like Georgia isn’t exactly an ideal spot. Over the last six years, Texas is just 1-5 ATS the week following the Red River Rivalry. The lone cover was by one point against Baylor during the 2020 Covid season. The five failed covers were by an average of 13.4 points per game. The only time during that six year span that Texas wasn’t favored by double digits the week following the Red River Rivalry was in 2021 — the Longhorns were -3 at home against Oklahoma State, and wound up losing the game outright.
While Texas enters this matchup in a tough spot, and yet to face quality competition, Georgia has pretty much seen it all this season. The Bulldogs opened up the season by crushing a Clemson team that is 5-0 since, and considered a likely candidate to land in the College Football Playoff. Georgia already has four SEC games under its belt, including a pair of stiff road tests. The Bulldogs went down to the wire at Kentucky and pulled out the win, and then did the same in Tuscaloosa, but came up short against Alabama. Both of those experiences should really help Georgia in this game.
Kirby Smart knows his team can only afford to drop one more game this season without any speculation of missing the CFP. You don’t want to start that conversation by losing this one in mid-October. On the flip side, a win in Austin puts the Bulldogs right back in the driver’s seat in the SEC. There’s a reason UGA was a road favorite in this game in the preseason markets. I do feel Georgia is the better team, and it enters this game having battled tough road environments already this season.
While Alabama held a 30-7 lead at halftime three weeks ago, Georgia battled back to take a 34-33 lead late in that game. If the Bulldogs can take any of what they learned in that second half and apply it to the start of the game at Texas, I think we could see a much more complete performance from UGA. I give the coaching advantage to Kirby Smart, who pulled off an outright victory the last time his team was priced as an underdog — Week 1 of 2021 versus Clemson. I think the Dawgs do the same here on Saturday night in Austin.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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