Denver and New Orleans are both off losses last week, and now how a short week to turnaround and square off in Week 7. The storyline in this one will be Sean Payton’s return to the Superdome, following a historic career as the head coach of the Saints.
After an impressive 2-0 start, New Orleans is in complete disarray, dropping four consecutive games. Meanwhile, Payton has his 3-3 Broncos overachieving, and they catch the Saints at the right time.
New Orleans has several key injuries, including at quarterback. That sets up a primetime matchup of rookie quarterbacks, as Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler will square off. Let’s breakdown my favorite betting angle.
Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints
DEN Broncos Moneyline (-125)
1.5-units
After an encouraging start to the season, the wheels have fallen off for the Saints. Not only has the high-powered offense come to a complete halt (even with Derek Carr at QB), but the defense is now getting absolutely shredded. After allowing 26 points each to the Falcons and Chiefs, New Orleans got blasted for 51 points by the Bucs on Sunday.
The Saints did put 27 points on the board themselves, but a lot of that had to do with some turnovers by Baker Mayfield. The Bucs’ QB threw three picks to New Orleans, setting up strong position to climb back in the game with some easy scores. Had Mayfield taken better care of the ball, this one could’ve been even uglier.
In his first NFL start, Rattler proved capable of making some solid throws, but wasn’t good enough to compete against a good defense. Rattler completed just over 50% of his passes, and was picked off two times. Now he will have to go up against a defense that ranks top-five in passing yards allowed, and is above average against the run. Denver ranks fourth in the NFL in points per game allowed at just 16.
The Broncos have arguably been even better on the road. They are 2-1 with a Week 1 loss in Seattle, going 3-0 ATS in road games. That includes outright victories as a road dog against the Bucs and Jets. The defense has been even better on the road, holding those opponents to an average of just 14 points.
Payton should have this one schemed up pretty well, and I trust his defense to make things really tough on Rattler. As long as Nix can protect the ball and the Broncos can run it, they should be in great shape here. The Saints are working through a lot of injuries, so even though they are at home, the short week doesn’t come at the best time here. Give me Payton and the Broncos to cruise to another road win.
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The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
