The New York Jets will return to primetime in their first game following the decision to fire head coach Robert Saleh. In the debut of interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich, the Jets will face off with the Buffalo Bills as the lone Monday night game.
There is plenty to prove in this AFC East matchup. New York is trying to salvage the season before it is too late and enters with a 2-3 record thus far. Buffalo enters with a 3-2 record, but is coming off back-to-back losses.
The Bills enter this game as 1.5-point favorites and are -122 favorites on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Jets hold +102 odds on the moneyline and the over/under for the game is set at 41.5.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football!
Bills at Jets Pick6 Plays
The Bills rank fifth in the NFL in scoring despite only producing the 23rd-most yards so far this year. Josh Allen has taken a massive stride forward in his decision-making and has yet to throw his first interception this season. Defensively, they have not been as sharp. Buffalo ranks 11th in points allowed and has given up the 21st-most yards on the season.
New York is still searching to find its identity as a team and is running out of time to do so. The Jets have impressed defensively, holding opponents to the second-fewest points per game and ranking sixth in yards allowed. But Aaron Rodgers has been unable to elevate the offense the way the Jets hoped and they rank 25th in scoring and 27th in yards as a team. The Jets also rank 30th in rushing yards tallied this season. It will be interesting to see how different things look after the coaching change, but the Jets have not met expectations or played their best football yet.
With the stage set, here are my top Pick6 choices for the Week 6 Monday night matchup.
Breece Hall More Than 59.5 Rushing Yards
One change to expect within the Jets offense is a larger commitment to the rushing game. Through the opening five weeks of the season, New York ranks 27th in rush attempts, 30th in rushing yards, 31st in net yards per rush attempt and 24th in rushing touchdowns. The Jets have rushed the ball on just 37.3% of plays this season.
Breece Hall is at the heart of this situation and has underwhelmed so far based on expectations. This has especially been the case the past two weeks where he has combined for only 19 carries for 27 rushing yards. Hall entered the year expected to solidify his reputation as one of the best running backs in the NFL. He still has a chance to achieve this but has to turn things around quickly.
Looking at the first three weeks, Hall had 62 rushing yards in Week 2 and 54 yards on the ground in Weeks 1 and 3. Buffalo has struggled to stop the run this season as it currently ranks 26th in yards allowed and 31st in net yards per rush attempt. Expect there to be a conscious effort for New York to have its best rushing game so far this season and for Hall to be at the core of this. The slate will be wiped clean following the coaching change and Hall will look to get back to producing the way he has shown. Count on him to approach a season-high in carries and record more than 60 yards on the ground in primetime.
Aaron Rodgers More Than 1.5 Rushing Yards
You won’t confuse him for Lamar Jackson on the field, but Aaron Rodgers has been more mobile than he has gotten credit for. At age 40, Rodgers has still moved around the pocket well and has a better burst than most expected. The four-time MVP has rushed the ball 11 times through the first five weeks and has recorded at least one rush attempt in all but one game. His best performance with his legs was in Week 4 against the Broncos when Rodgers rushed the ball five times for 26 yards.
As he prepares to face off with the Bills, it should take just one rush attempt for Rodgers to record more than 1.5 yards. This even has the potential to occur on just one really good QB sneak. Buffalo allowed 57 rushing yards to Kyler Murray in Week 1, 17 rushing yards to Tua Tagovailoa in Week 2, three rushing yards to Trevor Lawrence in Week 3, 54 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson in Week 4 and 27 rushing yards to C.J. Stroud last week.
Some of Rodgers’ best flashes this season have occurred on rollouts and bootlegs. Expect this to remain a part of the playbook and for the 10-time Pro Bowl quarterback to take at least one carry for more than two yards. While it is worth noting that he battled a bit of an ankle injury during the week, he is completely off the injury report and is not expected to have any limitations.
Tyler Conklin More Than 26.5 Receiving Yards
One of the more surprising bright spots in the Jets’ offense has been Tyler Conklin. The 29-year-old has tallied 17 receptions for 181 yards so far this season. He has had four or more receptions in each of the past three weeks. Conklin had his best performance in Week 3 when he tallied 93 yards through the air.
Conklin has quietly grown into a reliable tight end throughout his career. He has tallied over 550 receiving yards in each of the past three seasons and is on pace to do it again this season. Rodgers has struggled to get on the same page as some of his weapons but seems to trust Conklin.
Heading into the Monday night matchup with the Bills, expect this stretch of production to continue for Conklin. He has been targeted 27 times this season and should be expected to maintain this level of production. Considering his stretch of recent play, 26.5 yards is too low of a bar for Conklin. Consider this level of play the new normal and for Conklin to record at least 27 yards in this matchup.
Dalton Kincaid More Than 38.5 Receiving Yards
One of the larger questions the Bills faced entering the season was the status of their pass catchers. The loss of Stefon Diggs this offseason left a significant void on the team and this could be further magnified in this matchup as Khalil Shakir is considered a game-time decision.
Look directly toward Dalton Kincaid as the guy who could benefit if Shakir is absent and who will be involved in the offense regardless. So far this season he has recorded 15 receptions on 24 targets for 166 yards and a touchdown. Kincaid has tallied at least 33 yards through the air in each of the past four weeks and has gone above 38.5 receiving yards twice. The Utah product has received 13 targets in the past two weeks, which has been his best stretch of the season so far.
The Jets have a tough defense that ranks sixth in scoring and they are holding opponents to the second-fewest yards. They have allowed the fewest yards through the air and the fewest passing touchdowns to opponents. New York especially shines on the perimeter with Sauce Gardner headlining the production. Expect the Bills to look to spread out the Jets and attack over the middle. While there is not a true weakness in New York’s linebackers either, Kincaid will get his usual log of targets and be capable of recording more than 38.5 yards in the process.
Josh Allen Less Than 18.5 Completions
Josh Allen got off to a hot start to the season but his stats do not stand up to the rest of the NFL the way you might expect. While this is inflated from the rest of the league having played their Week 6 matchups, Allen currently ranks 27th in passing yards, 27th in pass attempts and 30th in completion percentage. He is coming off his worst performance of the season last week as Allen completed just nine of his 30 pass attempts for only 131 yards passing.
Allen has been held to fewer than 18.5 completions in four of the first five games of the season. He also has thrown for 180 yards or fewer in three of these games. Especially when factoring in a Jets defense that has allowed the fewest passing yards and touchdowns, this game is going to be a grind. The Jets have not allowed more than 16 completions to an opposing quarterback over the past three weeks, with 19 being the most they have allowed all season.
Expect the Jets’ defense to give Allen and the Bills some trouble in this matchup. Buckle up for some old-fashioned football as the rushing game may be the primary attack for each team. Count on Allen to still have his moments, but expect him to produce fewer than the 18.5 completions.
Braelon Allen More Than 33.5 Rushing Yards
While Breece Hall has underwhelmed to start the season, Braelon Allen has been a positive surprise. After just two carries in the opening game, Allen has recorded six or more touches in every matchup since. He logged 11 rush attempts in Week 3 and rushed for 55 yards in that matchup. While this marks his season high, Allen has also logged 33 yards and 34 yards in two other games.
As the Jets make a conscious effort to be a more run-oriented team, expect both running backs to make an impact. Allen is an elusive running back who has made the most of his opportunities so far. Considering how highly regarded Hall was entering the year, it is noteworthy that Allen has even been able to carve out a role for himself this quickly. The Wisconsin product has logged at least 18% of offensive snaps in each game this season and this trend should be expected to continue.
As the Jets embrace their new identity in the post-Saleh era, expect there to be a place in the offense for both Allen and Hall. Pencil him in for at least six carries and the potential to have his best game of the season. This is a great chance with the coaching change and the recent struggles from Hall. Get ahead of it early and count on Allen to record more than 33.5 yards on the ground.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of at least two players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must select players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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