The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $300K Sand Trap [$100K to 1st]
The Field
The PGA TOUR moves to Vegas for the Shriners Children’s Open, an event that dates back to 1983. The event has been hosted by TPC Summerlin for quite some time now and remains a popular spot for many top players, given its proximity to Las Vegas. The 2024 version of this event features a full 132-person field and will be headlined this year by Tom Kim once again, who has won this event two years in a row now. He’ll be joined by a couple of other recent PGA winners in Davis Thompson and Taylor Pendrith.
The fall series is no longer a part of the full-season FedEx Cup race but the points gained will count for status purposes in 2025 — so, like all fall series tournaments, it’s a big event for those who didn’t make the 2024 PGA playoffs or are currently outside the top 70. Last week’s winner Matt McCarthy is also in the field and now has full status for next season and beyond locked up after his win.
This event generally sees lower scoring (assuming the weather stays nice) and has seen the winner reach 20-under-par or better now in five straight seasons. There’s a regular Friday cutline of top 65 and ties and the cutline at this event often approaches five-under par or better. Expect lots of fantasy points from the winning teams.
Let’s dive into the course and player preview below.
The Course
TPC Summerlin, Las Vegas, Nevada
Par 71, 7200-7300 yards
TPC Summerlin is historically one of the easiest venues the players will encounter all year, although weather can still play a factor. For example, in 2017 the wind made for poor scoring the entire week, and the event was won at a paltry nine-under-par. However, in 2020-21, the weather was perfect, and the venue played as the third-easiest on TOUR — playing -2.141 strokes under par — and the winner hit 23-under-par.
One of the main reasons this is such a low-scoring event is that the venue is set at altitude — which means pretty much everyone in the field can drive it relatively far, making off-the-tee play somewhat irrelevant and putting more emphasis on putting. The fact recent winners here have included shorter hitters like Tom Kim, Ryan Moore, Kevin Na, and Ben Martin tells us right off the bat that lack of driving distance is not a huge deal and off-the-tee stats are generally not something you should concern yourself with this week. The 2020 version of this event was also a massive dichotomy in styles, as you had a bomber in Matthew Wolff but also a really short hitter off the tee in Austin Cook — and a well-rounded veteran in Martin Laird (who ended up winning). The last three seasons have seen solid ball-strikers (but not bombers) in Sungjae Im and Tom Kim run away with relatively easy victories.
The second thing helping the players at this venue is that nothing about the setup of this course is overly difficult. The rough generally isn’t very long, and the bentgrass greens are average to above average in size and speed. There are three par 5s on the course, and even the longest can be reached in two due to altitude, meaning most players will have an eagle opportunity or two every round if their ball-striking is on track. While there are a couple of longer par 4s, only one or two are challenging in the sense that they require players to hit a driver off the tee. Of the 11 par 4s on the course, only three measure in at over 450 yards. The par 3s rate as some of the toughest holes on the course, although only the 17th hole features water around the green.
This course is all about capitalizing on opportunities (of which there will be a lot), and the player who is aggressive this week and can bury the most chances with the putter when they arise will succeed. For more detailed info, look below under the winner’s stats and course notes.
2024 Weather Outlook: The weather for this year’s Shriners looks more volatile than usual with winds and cool temperatures sneaking in Thursday afternoon and potentially causing Friday to be a tougher day on the course. As of now, winds are expected to climb on Thursday afternoon up to 10-15mph. Then, on Friday, the highs are set to be just 65-70F making it a cooler day in the desert where players will also have to deal with consistent 15mph+ wind gusts. Things do look much better for the weekend but we could see a wave split develop on the first two days if the higher winds take over early on Thursday afternoon. As of now, I’d look to potentially fade the Thursday PM/Friday AM wave if possible, although that opinion could change later in the week if the forecast doesn’t hold or the forecast improves.
Last 5 winners
2023—Tom Kim -20 (over Adam Hadwin -19)
2022—Tom Kim -24 (over Patrick Cantlay -21)
2021—Sungjae Im -24 (over Matthew Wolff -20)
2020—Martin Laird -23 (over Matthew Wolff and Austin Cook playoff)
2019—Kevin Na -23 (over Patrick Cantlay playoff)
Winning Trends
– Nine of the last 13 winners of the Shriners Children’s Open had finished T16 or better at this event — in a prior year — before their win.
– 10 of the last 14 winners had a T11 or better finish in at least one of their previous five tournaments leading up to their win at the Shriners.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2023 Winner: Tom Kim (20-under par)
(2023 lead-in: T54-T13-win-T7-T26)
SG: OTT—+0.3
SG: APP—+7.4
SG: TTG—+6.5
SG: ATG—-1.2
SG: PUTT—+5.7
- Winners here have generally balled out in one of two different categories: SG: Putting or SG: Approach (Na set a record for putts gained in a single event in 2019 at +14.2 strokes gained) — in 2022 and 2023 Tom Kim gained over 5.5 strokes in both areas.
- 2020, 2018, and 2016 winners (Laird, DeChambeau, and Pampling) all gained over +6.5 strokes on approach and 2021 winner SungJae Im gained over +5.5.
- The course is set at a high altitude (2700ft), so drives here go longer than average PGA TOUR stops — the course plays fairly short as a result, so short iron play becomes uber important for setting up birdie chances.
- Driving accuracy numbers are slightly lower than the PGA TOUR average, but greens are very easy to hit as the rough isn’t very penalizing— GIR % is generally five-to-seven percent higher here than normal.
- Scrambling rates tend to be lower than normal but players aren’t challenged much in that regard, given the easy-to-hit greens.
- Players with high birdie rates who have shown the ability to spike with their approach play (and potentially their putter) should be seen as good GPP targets for daily fantasy golf lineups.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value comparative to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
JT Poston +4000 and $8,100
- Harry Hall (+4000 and $8,400)
- Adam Hadwin (+3500 and $8,900)
- Ben Griffin (+3500 and $8,200)
Michael Thorbjornsen +5000 and $7,500
- Ryan Fox (+5500 and $7,600)
- Chan Kim (+5500 and $7,600)
- Andrew Putnam (+5000 and $7,700)
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Adam Hadwin ($8,900; best finish: 2nd-2023; T4-2020): Hadwin is another player who absolutely excels whenever the PGA TOUR heads into the desert. He’s finished T10 or better at the Shriners in four of his last five appearances at this venue.
2. Tom Kim ($10,800; best finish: win-2022; win-2023): Kim has played this event twice and won on each occasion. He’s a killer on these shorter setups where scoring gets low and it turns into a wedge/putting contest.
3. Matthew NeSmith ($6,900; best finish: T8-2020; T2-2022): NeSmith is a great iron player who has produced a solid track record at TPC Summerlin. He’s 5/5 in made cuts at this event and has finished T18 or better in each of those starts (2nd in 2022).
4. Martin Laird ($6,500; best finish: win-2020; 2nd-2010): Laird has played this event 12 times since 2010. He finished 2nd at Summerlin back in 2010 and won the event in thrilling fashion in 2020. He’s coming in off a missed cut, but only missed by one shot, and has generally been striking it well of late.
5. Chesson Hadley ($7,000; best finish: T7-2023; T3-2016): Hadley is now 7/8 in made cuts at TPC Summerlin over the last seven seasons after posting a T7 at this venue last year. He’s putted extremely well on the greens at this venue and always seems to get up for this event.
Recent Form
1. Beau Hossler ($9,500; T11/2nd): Hossler’s long game has been in solid form of late, as he’s now gained over 4.0 strokes ball-striking in two straight starts. He outperformed around the green last week but also lost strokes putting. Having finished top 10 at this event/venue twice, it’s likely we see him bounce back with that club in Vegas and challenge for another top 10.
2. Stephan Jaeger ($9,900; T2/T23): Jaeger finished 2nd last week in Utah and has been outperforming with his putter lately, having gained over 3.0 strokes on the greens in back-to-back starts. His iron play picked up last week but he’ll need the putter to stay hot to have a shot at another top 10.
3. Seamus Power ($9,300; T11/T11): Power has been playing solid golf this fall. He ended his playoff run with a T10 at the FedEx Cup and has landed T11 finishes in back-to-back starts, having gained over 2.0 strokes on approach in each of those starts. He’s never finished better than T21 at Summerlin but looks like a player close to challenging for a win soon.
4. Joe Highsmith ($6,900; T6/T55): Highsmith has two top-15 finishes in his last three starts after his T6 in Utah last week. He spiked hard with his putter last week (+6.0) so we may see some regression this week at Summerlin on a course with more mature greens.
5. Henrik Norlander ($7,000 – T8/T28): Norlander comes into this week’s event with two top-10 finishes over his last four starts. He’s hitting his irons well but is mainly outperforming on the greens. With his price still very low, he makes sense as an upside target this week.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Power can surge you into contention
Seamus Power ($9,300) comes into this week’s event off a couple of top-15 finishes and playing well. He’s gained over 3.0 strokes on approach in the last two events and is certainly the kind of player who excels on these shorter courses where low scoring is needed to win. At just 9,300, he’s the sort of player I’d like to build around this week in HU entries and 50/50 lineups. Further down, I don’t think you can go wrong with buying the dip on a couple of more prominent names in Rickie Fowler ($7,600) and Emiliano Grillo ($7,400) either. Fowler showed well in his first fall start (T16 Sanderson) and Grillo is on a six-event made-cut streak. His price makes little to no sense given the overall weakness of this field.
Tournaments: Ryder and Cauley two longshots to consider
This event has seen plenty of longshot winners (Laird 2020, Na 2019, Pampling 2016) so the stars and scrubs lineup builds this week will have more appeal than usual. Sam Ryder ($6,500) is a player who has often competed without any recent results to go off, with his last top 10 on the PGA coming at the 3M Open in 2023 after two missed cuts. He struggled to start his fall swing but had a decent result last week (T40) and has gained over 2.5 strokes on approach now in three of his last four starts. He also finished T3 at this event back in 2018 and has gained strokes putting at TPC Sumerlin in each of his last six visits to the course. Bud Cauley ($6,900) is another player available at under 7k who has finished top 10 at this venue (T10 2018) and had a good result two starts ago at the Sanderson Farms. Cauley’s game is tailor-made for venues like Summerlin as he’s a great short-iron player who can spike hard with his putter. He gained 4.2 strokes putting a couple of starts ago and with more mature greens this week could be in a spot to outperform with that club again this week.
MY PICK: Tom Hoge ($9,800)
Hoge is one of those players who just seems too good to only have one PGA win to his name. He’s an expert wedge and mid-iron player who typically excels on accuracy-driven courses and comes in ranked 10th in SG: APP stats over the last 24 rounds, and gained over 5.0 strokes on approach and putting in his only fall start at the Procore.
From a course experience angle, Hoge also has a solid edge this week as he’s played TPC Sumerlin numerous times in the past having finished T4 here in 2022 and T7 here in 2017. Hoge can still be a little up and down on the greens but he’s improved in that area a lot over the last couple of seasons and comes in off a very good putting performance in Napa. With the gap between him and market leader Tom Kim over $1,000 on DraftKings and Hoge’s outright odds (+2800) over double Kim’s on the DraftKings Sportsbook, Hoge is the upper-tier value I’d prefer to build lineups around for DFS, and also like him at his current outright number in the betting markets.
MY SLEEPER: Nick Hardy ($7,000)
I’m going to go back to Nick Hardy this week as a sleeper, a player who (if you follow this column) knows I have been tracking for a while now. Hardy’s ball-striking has been on the up trend for a while now as he’s now gained strokes OTT and on approach in nine of his last 11 starts. Last week in Utah he gained over two strokes off the tee and on approach on his way to a T8 finish and has finally started to flip his putter, which also gained him 3.2 strokes last week.
Hardy is a former winner on the PGA, although that win came in the team event in New Orleans. He’s tended to do his best work in these lower-scoring events, having also posted a T8 at TPC River Highlands back in 2022, which is a venue with good correlation to TPC Summerlin, and where Tom Kim lost in a playoff this season.
With the weather potentially looking a little iffy the first two days Hardy’s ball-striking could be a big difference maker this week and with his putting confidence back this certainly could be the week where everything comes together for the 28-year-old. At 7k on DraftKings, he’s the kind of value I’d like to be overweight on in DFS and for betting, his +280 top 20 number looks like a solid number given how consistent his long game has been of late.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $300K Sand Trap [$100K to 1st]
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
