Things haven’t exactly been going the Jets’ way recently, but there is an interesting system in play that works in favor of the bettors looking to back New York on Monday. More on that in this Bills vs. Jets preview later.
Let’s get into the betting splits for the moneyline, spread and game total bets made on DraftKings Sportsbook for this game.
Game splits
Moneyline
Despite being slight dogs vs. Buffalo, the sharps appear to be with the Jets (-102) on the moneyline.
Only 29% of this game’s moneyline bets have been cast toward the Jets. However, those picks have accounted for 41% of the handle.
Spread
Things shift a bit over here. Before getting into splits, let’s look at the spread movement. The Bills opened as 1.5-point favorites. At one point, Buffalo maxed out as a 3-point favorite.
Yet now, for all that movement, the Jets are only a one-point dog as of writing.
All the while, the Bills have seen 78% of the spread bets and 82% of the handle. Those splits flow with the spread’s original increase off of the opening 1.5 line and also indicate a sharp lean. But seeing that line slip down to 1-even, given the splits, is odd.
Total
This opened at 44.5 but has since dwindled down steadily. Now, the BUF-NYJ game total is bouncing back and forth between 41 and 40.5.
The decrease has made it easier for the over to hit while the over is a public, non-sharp play, having accounted for 67% of the game total handle on 72% of bets. Even without the sharp lean, movement that helps out an already popular play is something to take note of.
System to note
Since 2021, AFC underdogs are 8-1 against the spread on Monday Night Football when facing a divisional opponent.
With the spread being one point as of writing, this system only carries so much weight. But, there’s still time for that to move.
Keep in mind, this system is against the closing line. Based on the way this spread has moved, that could be quite different from the current one-point mark we see now.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
