The 1-4 Bengals might be spiraling, but their passing game has never looked better. Star quarterback Joe Burrow has gotten plenty of praise, but wideout Ja’Marr Chase has also impressed. The three-time Pro Bowler is leading the NFL in touchdown catches (5) and is second in receiving yards (493).
It’s no secret that a potent offense (fourth-most passing yards) combined with a terrible defense (26th in yards allowed) is ideal in fantasy football. Given Chase’s track record and chemistry with Burrow, it doesn’t look like he’ll slow down any time soon. However, savvy managers know that there’s always an opportunity to ship off brand names.
To that point, there are a few numbers that support a sell-high. Chase’s target share currently sits at 20.2%, just 36th among all wide receivers. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, his 8.8 average targeted air yards are just 60th in the league. His yards after catch per reception mark of 8.3 is nearly triple his expected total (3.1 xYAC/R). By nearly all accounts, Chase is over-performing.
In addition, an improvement from the rest of Cincinnati’s roster might hinder their WR1. Once Burrow and company aren’t forced into obvious passing situations, they can run the ball more (27th-most rush attempts). It wouldn’t be a shock to see the team win comfortably in at least three of their next four games (@NYG, @ CLE, vs. PHI, vs. LVR).
Still, this is Ja’Marr Chase. A bona fide one of one, elite wide receiver. He may be outplaying his expected statistics, but the man has never garnered less than 128 targets in a season. It’s also worth noting that Burrow missed six games last season. When the franchise quarterback does play, Chase’s career numbers are nothing short of spectacular (6.2 catches, 9.3 targets and 88.4 receiving yards per game).
With the Bengals’ defense looking weaker than ever, even a midseason bounce-back won’t turn this offensive juggernaut into a ground-and-pound team. If you’re going to trade a superstar, it better be for an absolute haul. That doesn’t mean ignore value. Chase is a consensus top-five option at his position, so the list of names you can’t get for him is extremely low.
Heading into Sunday night’s potential shootout with the Giants (over/under of 47 points), it may be prudent to hold on for one more week. However, if you’re going to strike, do it while the iron is hot. Trading Chase won’t be easy, but that’s the ultimate sign of a true sell-high.
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