The Jets host the Bills in a major divisional Monday Night Football matchup. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bills (+2) at Jets o/u 40.5
Bills Team Breakdown
The Bills have dropped two games in a row after a 3-0 start to the season. Josh Allen is having another fantastic season, but some of the Bills’ issues that seemed troublesome on paper before the season have been exposed over the past two weeks. The lack of receivers is one major issue for the Bills. Keon Coleman could be great, but doesn’t seem to be quite there yet. Last week, with Khalil Shakir hurt, Josh Allen only completed nine passes against the Texans.
The week before, the Ravens exposed the Bills’ defensive weaknesses. The Bills’ starting safeties are a major step down from what they have had in the past, and the linebacker corps is significantly weakened with Matt Milano potentially out for the season. The need to have everyone assist in pass coverage. Because of the lack of quality on the back end, this personnel dedication has hurt the run defense as well. The Bills currently rank 22nd in the league in defensive rush EPA.
Jets Team Breakdown
It has been a whirlwind of a season for the Jets already. After an opening-week loss to San Francisco, they won back-to-back games over the Titans and Patriots. Aaron Rodgers played a flawless game against the Patriots and it looked like the Jets could be the real deal. However, they followed that game up with a disastrous home loss to Denver in horrible weather conditions. Last week, they lost to the Vikings in a game where they had the ball with a chance to win on the final drive. Following that loss, Robert Saleh was unexpectedly fired as head coach and Interim HC Jeff Ulbrich demoted OC Nathaniel Hackett.
This game is basically a make-or-break for the Jets’ season. Despite this rocky start to the season, the Jets would be in first place in the AFC East with a win over the Bills. The change-ups on the coaching staff could be the spark this team needs to eliminate the mistakes that have been made over the past two weeks. If the Jets make their game-winning field goal attempt over Denver and if Aaron Rodgers hits a touchdown pass against the Vikings on that final drive, this team would be 4-1 and the entire perception around them is totally different.
The offense has shown flashes of success but has not been able to sustain it. The defense, however, is elite once again. They are one of the top units in the league and since Week 2, they are the second-best defense in the league in EPA/play. Since that time, the Broncos’ defense is number-one in EPA/play and the Vikings’ defense is number-three. So, facing those two elite defenses could give some indication as to why the Jets’ offense has struggled so much the past two weeks.
Pick and Prediction
This is about as big of a game as you can see in Week 6 of the NFL season. Both of these teams entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations but both head into this game on a two-game losing streak. Now they face off on Monday Night Football with first place in the AFC East on the line. The Jets have the home-field advantage in this game and that has been pivotal in the Jets-Bills rivalry as of late. Over the past two seasons, the home team has won all four matchups between these two teams.
Jeff Ulbrich’s defense has been great against Josh Allen at home. In Josh Allen’s last two trips to MetLife Stadium against the Jets, he has one touchdown pass and five interceptions and has been sacked ten times. The Jets’ defense basically stalled out the Minnesota offense which has been one of the best offenses in the league this year and should be able to slow down the Bills, especially if they are without Khalil Shakir or James Cook. Outside of Josh Allen, those are the Bills’ two best offensive players and they are both questionable for this game.
The Jets making a change at play-caller could be the spark that their offense needs. This will also be a much easier defensive matchup than they have faced over the past two weeks. The Bills’ 23rd-ranked run defense could really struggle against the Jets’ rushing attack which would then open up the play-action game for Aaron Rodgers. This is a season-defining game for the Jets and this should be an A+ effort with the boost of their new head coach.
Best Bet: Jets +2
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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