We have a 12-game Sunday slate and Monday night doubleheader to look forward to this weekend, and with that comes plenty of opportunities to hit some prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook. Below are some of my favorites for the Week 7 slate.
OVER Picks
WR Jameson Williams Over 47.5 Rec Yds (-120)
This is easily one of my favorite prop bets this weekend. Williams has gone over this total in four of the Lions’ first five games. He is averaging 73 receiving yards per game, so this total is way too low for me. His yards per catch (22.8) is second in the NFL, so if Williams only gets two or three catches, he should still be able to hit this over.
To make matters even better, the Lions’ passing game has a great matchup this weekend, facing a good Vikings defense that does give up a ton of yards in the air. Minnesota gives up the third most passing yards per game right now at 263 per game. I expect Williams and these Lions receivers to have a successful day at the office on Sunday.
WR Stefon Diggs Over 67.5 Rec Yds (-115)
We trusted Diggs to hit his over last week, and he delivered. I am now going back to the well for a second straight week, and I feel really good about him once again. Nico Collins is still missing from the Texans lineup, giving Diggs the green light to continue as the wide receiver one. He got off to a slow start to the season in his first two games but has hit the over on this total in each of his last four.
Diggs has another favorable matchup this week against the Packers, who rank 25th in the league against the pass, conceding an average of 228.7 yards per game. C.J. Stroud is currently 5th in the NFL in pass attempts, so it’s no secret that the Texans love to pass the ball. Diggs and company will only benefit from that, and I expect them to throw it all over the park on Sunday against a struggling Packers secondary.
RB Derrick Henry Over 82.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Derrick Henry currently leads the NFL in rushing yards, and he doesn’t look like slowing down anytime soon. He is now 30 years old and in his 9th NFL season, and yet current yards per carry (5.9) is a career best. Henry is drinking from the fountain of youth, and he has hit the over on this number in each of his last five games.
The Buccaneers have a respectable top-11 rush defense, but I think they will be no match for Henry on Monday night. King Henry simply cannot be stopped right now, averaging 117.3 rush yards per game and leading the league in rushing by 95. He has eight touchdowns this season, so his anytime TD scorer bet doesn’t have much value at -215, but I do like him to score the first touchdown of the game at +400.
UNDER Picks
RB Breece Hall Under 61.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Although Hall is coming off a bounce-back game with 113 yards against the Bills, I think this will be a much tougher matchup for him to get things going on the ground. The Jets are facing a Steelers defense that is fourth in the NFL against the run, and New York will want to show off their shiny new toy in Davante Adams.
Hall has gone under this total in four of six games this season, and his 3.7 yards per carry is 44th in the NFL. It has not been a good season for the third-year running back out of Iowa State, and I think that will continue Sunday night. Aaron Rodgers has thrown the 4th most pass attempts in the league, and with the acquisition of Adams, you can only expect that to increase.
QB Matthew Stafford Under 231.5 Pass Yds (-115)
There are not many things that the Raiders are good at this season, but one of the things they can do well is limit opposing offenses to a ton of passing yards. They are currently ranked 7th in the league in that statistic, only allowing 186.2 pass yards per game. This total for Stafford seems way too high, as he has only hit the over on this number in two of his first five games and now faces a pretty good secondary. I think it’s fair to say that he has been average this year, as he ranks around the middle of the pack in pass yards, yards per attempt, QBR and passer rating. His three touchdown passes are tied for 30th in the NFL.
After finally trading Davante Adams, I think the Raiders team will feel a sigh of relief and be glad the situation is in the rearview mirror. As a result, I think this team will be fired up and ready to compete on Sunday, specifically on the defensive side of the football.
QB Deshaun Watson Under 184.5 Pass Yds (-115)
I think everyone can agree that Watson has not been very good this season, and I think this total is still too high for the way he’s been playing. He has gone under this total in four of his first six games, and both times he went over, he still did not reach the 200-yard mark. On the season, he is averaging 170 pass yards per game, so an average performance this weekend would help us hit the under. His yards per attempt this season is 5.1, only better than Mason Rudolph (5.0), and Bryce Young (4.8).
Watson has truly been dreadful this season, and it’s not exactly going to get any easier as the Browns just traded his best receiver Amari Cooper to the Buffalo Bills. They now have to face a Bengals defense that is above average against the pass, ranking 14th in the league in that statistic. I think things will only get worse for Watson and the Browns before they get better.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
