The red hot Commanders travel down the Beltway on Sunday afternoon to face the Ravens in a matchup getting a lot of headlines. After an 0-2 start, the Ravens are looking more and more like the Super Bowl contender we expected them to be. But Jayden Daniels has Washington surprisingly in the hunt in the NFC, and bettors are taking notice.
This is a tricky game, as it’s hard to go against the Commanders with how well they are playing. That said, while the public is backing Washington (72% of the spread bets according to DK Network, as of Friday afternoon), Baltimore has still grown from -6.5 to -7. I’m staying away from backing the public dog in this one, and instead taking a different approach. Let’s break it down below.
Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens
WAS Team Total OVER 20.5 (-130)
1-unit
Both of these teams have found themselves in high scoring games throughout the season. Baltimore ranks 26th in terms of points per game allowed, giving up 25.4 per game. While Washington ranks 19th, surrendering 23 points per game, the defense has dropped off on the road, giving up an average of 28. These are also the top-two scoring offenses in the NFL, with the Commanders putting up 31 a game, and the Ravens just behind them at 29.4. The over for the game is a decent look, but I’ll just focus in on Washington’s side.
Reality should set in for Washington and its rookie quarterback at some point, but I’m not sure this is the spot. Maybe the Commanders don’t cover the game, but I don’t think it’ll be for lack of offense. They scored 20 and 21 points in the first two games of the season, and after getting a win over the Giants in a game they kicked seven field goals, something has clicked for Jayden Daniels. No more settling for three points, as Washington has gone for 38, 42 and 34 in the three games since.
While the Ravens have been very solid defending the run, they rank just 31st in passing yards allowed per game at over 280. Joe Burrow and the Bengals just threw for 371 last week, so this should be a very good spot for Daniels and the passing attack. If Washington wins or covers this one, it’ll be because they are thriving through the air. If Washington gets behind in this one, they will be forced to sling it to try and get back in it. One way or another, I think the Commanders find their way to at least 21 points in this one, and we’ll see what the Ravens can do on the other side.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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