For the second straight day, Major League Baseball delivers a decisive game in the Division Series. After the Dodgers and Padres battled it out in the National League, the American League has a divisional Game 5 this Saturday as the Guardians host the upstart Tigers. The game was originally scheduled for late afternoon but then shifted to primetime when the Yankees clinched the ALDS. On Friday afternoon, the game was moved again due to bad weather coming into the region, though, and the first pitch will now take place at 1:08 p.m. ET.
The Guardians led the AL Central most of the season while the Tigers scuffled until the MLB Trade Deadline when they shipped multiple players away and went young. The young players stepped up, though, and helped the team claim a Wild Card spot. Can the “Gritty Tigs” claw their way to the ALCS or will the Guardians protect their AL Central Division crown and set up a matchup of the top two seeds from the regular season? We’ll find out Saturday afternoon in the winner-takes-all Game 5. Let’s break it down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $60K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st] (DET @ CLE)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Pick
Tarik Skubal ($18,000): Even before the Tigers’ magical turnaround, Skubal was the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young and was having one of the best seasons of any pitcher in baseball. The 27-year-old lefty has been dominant all year going an impressive 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA, 2.49 FIP and 10.69 K/9 over his 31 starts. He allowed three runs or less in each of his last nine regular-season starts, going 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA and 66 strikeouts in 55 2/3 innings.
Skubal has continued his dominant run into the postseason too. He threw six scoreless innings against the Astros in the Wild Card round to earn 26.5 fantasy points in a win. In Game 2 of this series, he earned a no-decision after seven more shutout innings with eight strikeouts and 29.4 fantasy points.
With a ceiling so high, Skubal is worth paying all the way up for in the Captain’s Pick spot, especially since if he goes off for a huge game, the Guardians’ hitters could all be busts. You will need to differentiate your lineup in other places since Skubal could be chalky, but there are plenty of ways to do that.
UTIL Plays
Matthew Boyd ($11,200): With how rare offense has been in this series, you can stack Boyd with Skubal and go with ultra-cheap bats. It’s not easy to make the numbers work, but it’s definitely possible. The former Tiger has looked sharp for the Guardians since joining the team after completing his recovery from Tommy John surgery in mid-August. Boyd had 16.9 fantasy points in Game 2 opposite Skubal, holding the Tigers scoreless for 4 2/3 innings with five strikeouts, four hits and two walks. Going with the two starting pitchers is high-risk since either could be lifted quickly if things go wrong, but there’s enough upside to consider the strategy if you don’t love any high-priced batters.
David Fry ($6,800): Fry’s Game 4 heroics extended the series to Game 5, and he’ll probably get the start against Skubal since he is usually in the lineup against lefties. Fry homered and had three RBI off the bench for 18 fantasy points on Thursday, and also had 21 fantasy points back in Game 1. If he’s in the lineup, he makes sense having hit .287 against lefties this season with a .418 wOBA. Going against Skubal is tricky, but Fry is cheap enough to be worth the risk.
Justyn-Henry Malloy ($5,400): The 24-year-old Malloy hit only .203 during the regular season with eight home runs, but he fared much better at Triple-A with a .258 batting average and .388 wOBA in 55 games. He has appeared in all four games this series, starting in Game 2 and going 2-for-3 with six fantasy points. He has hit 5-for-7 in his postseason appearances with a double and a run scored. With Kerry Carpenter ($8,600) possibly limited or unavailable due to a hamstring issue, Malloy could be a great value to slide into the Tigers’ lineup and onto your roster to give some salary cap space.
Fades
Jose Ramirez ($9,800): I’m a huge Ramirez fan and think he’s vastly underrated by most baseball fans. However, paying almost $10,000 for a hitter against Tarik Skubal is not a great way to spend salary. He did homer on Thursday, but he went 0-for-9 in the first three games of this series. The Guardians don’t have a ton of protection around Ramirez in the lineup, so the Tigers will continue to be very careful with him. Even if he does get some walks, he’ll need a big game to be worth this salary. In this matchup and with his form, I don’t see that as a likely scenario.
THE OUTCOME
The Tigers have a huge advantage with Skubal on the mound. While I think the Guardians have a better, more complete team and more depth, those factors won’t matter as much considering Skubal’s dominance in a one-game elimination scenario. Ultimately, I expect another low-scoring game with the Gritty Tigs doing just enough to keep their magical run going into the ALCS.
Final Score: Tigers 3, Guardians 1
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $60K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st] (DET @ CLE)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
