The Bengals travel to the Giants for a pivotal Sunday Night Football matchup. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bengals (-3.5) at Giants o/u 47
Bengals Team Breakdown
It has been a bizarre season for the Bengals. They went into the season as Super Bowl hopefuls, but instead will enter this game with a 1-4 record. They lost to the Ravens in OT last week, partially due to some bizarre coaching decisions from Zac Taylor. Among their other losses: one to the Commanders in a game where their offense scored on every single possession, one to the Chiefs by one point due to a questionable penalty, and one to the Patriots in a game where they lost two key fumbles. If just four plays went differently, this team could be 4-1, or even 5-0, instead of 1-4.
The Bengals have one of the best offenses in the league this season. They are fourth in EPA/play, second in dropback EPA and second in dropback success rate. Since getting Tee Higgins back in Week 3, Joe Burrow is second in the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite and the offense is thirrd in EPA/play. Zack Moss and Chase Brown are both good to go so Joe Burrow should have a full complement of weapons to work with and this offense should stay hot.
Bad luck has hurt the Bengals this season but the defense has also been bad. They are 30th in the NFL in EPA/play and 31st in success rate. Granted, they have faced Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels so it hasn’t been an easy run of matchups and they did hold up much better against lesser QB competition like Jacoby Brissett and Andy Dalton. However, Lou Anarumo needs to make some changes to improve this defense if they want any chance at saving their season.
Giants Team Breakdown
While the Bengals have underperformed, the Giants have overperformed so far this season. They lost to the Vikings who have been the best team in the NFL this season and then they lost close games to the Commanders and Cowboys. That being said, their win over the Browns looks less impressive now as the Browns appear to be one of the worst teams in the league at the moment. Overall, Daniel Jones has played solid football compared to expectations for him, partially due to the emergence of rookie WR Malik Nabers.
Other than Cooper Kupp, who has only played in two games this season, Malik Nabers is averaging more targets per game than any other receiver in the league. Nabers almost single-handedly won the Browns game for the Giants with the incredible catches he was making. However, Nabers missed last week’s game with a concussion and it is confirmed that he will miss this game as well. The Giants played well without Nabers last week thanks to a huge game from Darius Slayton but the question is whether or not that is sustainable.
Pick and Prediction
The Bengals’ offense is a freight train that no defense should try to get in front of. The Giants’ defense ranks 19th in defensive DVOA and they still have a lot of question marks in the secondary. Joe Burrow should be able to pick them apart and put up some big numbers once again. He has a full stable of healthy skill position players and has to be determined to pick up a win after this brutal start to the season.
Daniel Jones is 1-14 SU and 6-9 ATS in primetime in his career. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow is the bounceback king as he holds a record of 16-7-1 ATS in games after a SU loss. Per DVOA, the Bengals have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. It is a longshot at this point but if the Bengals get a win in this game, they could start a run to compete for a playoff spot in the AFC. Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense should play great and Daniel Jones won’t be able to do quite enough to exploit the Bengals’ defensive issues.
Best Bet: Bengals -3.5
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