We got a brief glimpse of Drake Maye in his NFL debut on Thursday Night Football in Week 3 against the Jets, but just for one drive. However, the Patriots have seemingly hit the panic button in Foxborough, going to the No. 3 overall pick as the starter, entering Week 6 with a 1-4 record.
The sharp side of this game is actually shaping up to be New England (just 23% of the spread bets for 37% of the handle, according to DK Network, as of Friday afternoon, has ticked the number down from NE +7 to +6.5). I’m staying away from a side in the game, though, and going specifically to a prop I love on Maye.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Drake Maye OVER 26.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
1.5-units
Maye certainly has his work cut out for him here. The Patriots have been in shambles on the offensive line all season, and don’t have many skill position players to help the cause — specifically down the field threats. On top of that, it’s looking like leading rusher, Rhamondre Stevenson, is going to miss this game due to injury.
The rookie is going to be making his first NFL start going up against a Houston defense that ranks third in the NFL in passing yards allowed, giving up just 154 per game. Last week, the Texans allowed Josh Allen to complete just 30% of his passes (9-of-30), which isn’t exactly encouraging. That said, Allen was able to scamper for 54 yards rushing on just four carries.
The only other mobile quarterbacks that Houston has faced were also able to find some success on the ground — Caleb Williams (five carries for 44 yards) and Anthony Richardson (six carries for 56 yards). While Maye gets a lot of attention for his big arm, he also isn’t shy to tuck it an run. While he only played one drive against the Jets in his debut, he ran it twice for 12 yards.
Dating back to college is where we really see the type of player Maye is. He made 26 starts at North Carolina, and eclipsed this number 16 times. In 13 of those games he actually wound up rushing for over 50 yards, and remember, in the college game sacks count towards negative yardage.
With a shaky offensive line, limited options at receiver, and a strong pass defense in front of him, I’m expecting Maye to resort to his size and athleticism to run the ball in this game. I think this number is set way too low, simply on the fact we’re yet to see Maye step in and take control of this offense. Great spot to get in while the price is low.
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