Welcome to this edition of the DraftKings NFL DFS Edge Check! This week we are going to be using the Contest Simulations over at Paydirtdfs.com to take a look at each position and highlight some of the most undervalued options based on the sim results. This process involves utilizing ownership projections and projection distributions and simulating contest outcomes to better understand how valuable a player really is in different field sizes.
We are going to break down the top overall edges which gives us plays to focus on. If you want to see the players that appear to be overvalued that will hurt you in GPPs, check out the full Contest Sims on the site. If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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QB Edge Distributions
The contest sims are very clear at who is the best edge at QB: Lamar Jackson ($7,800). He has a projected ownership of 17.45%, but shows up in nearly 63% of winning lineups based on a sharp contest simulation. That is a massive amount of edge! His projection of 25.73 FPTS paired with a strong game environment (Washington is a bottom-three pass defense) makes him the premier option when considering where to start your lineups. Yes, he is expensive, but that’s what happens when you have a 33% rush rate and an average PPR output of 28 FPTS per game. He’s an easy button this week.
Other QBs that should be in consideration are Dak Prescott ($6,700) and Jordan Love ($6,600). Both of them show up in winning lineups at a pretty solid rate (15.10% and 12.70%) and have ownership projections that are in the 10% range. The two the models over at Paydirt much prefer Dak Prescott based on his stacking partners, but both options have their upside. considering the price difference from Lamar to Prescott/Love you have two completely different paths to take in roster construction.
I think it’s also worth noting that the distribution of pricing in the value QBs is interesting. You are either paying all the way up for Lamar or all the way down for Drake Maye ($5,000), Andy Dalton ($5,200) or Spencer Rattler ($4,000) with a couple premium options in between. It makes for a kind of binary build path that should give some distinct outlooks.
RB Edge Distributions
Above, you’ll find the top RBs in positive edge based on this set of contest simulations. The best overall edge offered at RB this week is the +15.12% we get on Najee Harris ($5,800). His projected ownership of 14.88% is too low given his exposure rate in winning simulations at 30%. It helps that he gets a matchup with the Raiders, who have allowed 4.6 PPR points above average to opposing running backs.
The next tier down in terms of positive edge offered comes from David Montgomery ($6,500) and Tony Pollard ($6,000) at 6.44% and 5.29%, respectively. Although they have similar edges offered, they have drastically different ownership projections. Montgomery has an own projection of around 10%, while Pollard projects to be relatively heavily chalk at 23.21%. This is a great visualization of why ownership only matters in terms of how often a player is optimal, not as a standalone number.
Other valuable options in terms of positive edge include: J.K. Dobbins (+4.24%), Saquon Barkley (3.99%) and Chuba Hubbard (+3.41%). Take note that there are three RBs projected for over 10% ownership that are negative edges, You’ll want to go check out the full models to find out who!
WR Edge Distributions
With Lamar Jackson such an incredible option at QB, it’s going to lead to his receiving options gaining a lot of attention due to the correlation upside. We see that with Rashod Bateman ($4,100), who has by far the highest edge offered at WR in this set of simulations. His +34.69% mark is due to an ownership projection of just 9.21% with an exposure rate in winning lineups of 43.90%. It’s worth saying that Bateman is the one getting this correlation boost, not Zay Flowers ($6,500), and the big reason is likely their prices. While Bateman has a lower median of 9.03 FPTS (ceiling of 18.54) his salary is just $4,100, which pairs much better with Lamar than Zay Flowers who has a cost of $6,500. You will see a similar situation with the TE edges (foreshadowing, they are Baltimore heavy) and it makes sense when you think about the way that roster construction happens organically.
The next big positive edge is Ray-Ray McCloud III ($4,300) at +19.05%. His ownership projection is rather high at 19%, but that is still half of his deserved ownership based on the contest sims. This is another great example of how ownership is not something to always fade at face value, as many people would just remove McCloud based on high ownership projections when, in fact, he is not highly owned enough. Unlike Bateman, who gets a big boost for the correlation with Jackson, McCloud is a good play on his own with a median projection of 11.60 FPTS and a 4x rate in the Paydirt simulations of 19.40%.
TE Edge Distributions
This is a bit of an odd week at TE. The contest Sims basically said “We are going to make Lamar Jackson work under any means necessary” and just jammed in any of his TEs at a pretty even clip. Charlie Kolar ($2,800) has the least upside, but we saw last week that he has a red zone presence that can show up in any individual game. Isaiah Likely ($4,500) has the highest projection and upside, but also costs the most of the three. The moral of the story from the top edges: Play Lamar Jackson and punt your TE.
Now it is worth saying that there are other TEs that do show up in the winning lineups quite often. One of them being Zach Ertz ($3,700), on the other side of the BAL/WAS game, who makes for an easy correlation piece if you are using Lamar/Bateman and want to keep a skinny stack. Cade Otton ($3,500) is another who shows up 9.40% of the time and is projected for 10.87% ownership, making him a mostly neutral play. There is also another one that shows up at 14.10% and is demanding the most ownership of any TE on the slate, you can find out who that is in the player ROO!
Overall Thoughts on the Sims
On the surface this is a relatively straight forward slate with a lot of good ownership. Lamar Jackson, Tony Pollard and Ray-Ray McCloud III are all projecting for significant ownership, but not as much ownership as they deserve, which makes them strong plays regardless. You’ll want to load up on those spots while giving yourself relative value through options like Rashod Bateman, Jameson Williams and Isaiah Likely. Overall, so long as you stick to Baltimore or Dallas stacks while focusing on the mid-range values to make the stack work, you are going to have a very strong base with a lot of upside in GPPs.
Good luck and go grab some trophies. And remember, If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Multichem) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.