GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup, and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 6.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Top DFS Stacks
Game Stack: Commanders at Ravens
Jayden Daniels ($7,300) – Austin Ekeler ($5,600) – Terry McLaurin ($6,400) – Zay Flowers ($6,500)
Let’s break down this game a little. It’s got the highest point total on the slate at 51.5 and has a 6.5-point spread with the Commanders set as underdogs. That’s similar to the spot Washington was in against the Bengals and Cardinals recently, both games in which Jayden Daniels excelled. As crazy as it sounds with last year’s MVP candidate on the other side, Daniels is the more efficient passer of two QBs (77% comp rate; 8.7 yards per carry) and with a poor Ravens secondary on the other side of the ball, who has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this year, he’s the signal caller I’d prefer to stack with this week.
Stacking Daniels does leave us with some intriguing options to use at WR as well. There is the very obvious in Terry McLaurin, who is thriving in this new Kliff Kingsbury system with one of the most accurate passers in the league. McLaurin got off to a slow start but has averaged over 20.0 yards per catch in two of his last three games and faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed 7.5 yards per attempt thus far (sixth-worst in the league). I have no doubt that McLaurin will be popular and you could certainly look to use either Dyami Brown ($4,000) or Olamide Zacchaeus ($3,600) in this spot as secondary stacking options to reduce ownership. Both men have provided some big games already with Daniels under center and if Noah Brown sits again, both will likely play 40-50% of the snaps.
If I’m getting to choose though, I’d likely prefer to use RB Austin Ekeler as a third option to complete the Commanders stack. Ekeler is a defacto WR, who had a solid game against a tougher Cleveland rush defense last week, sprinting for 67 yards on just six carries, while adding 30 yards through the air on just two catches. Baltimore is still a tougher team to run against and Ekeler provides better versatility/explosiveness than Brian Robinson Jr. who had a poor game last week coming off a hamstring injury. The Ravens have already allowed multiple big plays to RBs through the air, and last week allowed Chase Brown to find the end zone as a receiver as well. Ekeler could surprise in this spot, especially if Kingsbury and the Commanders choose to go more up-tempo early to counteract the Ravens’ stout pass rush and rush defense.
On the flip side of this game, choices will have to be made when looking at comeback plays. Derrick Henry is undoubtedly going to be a popular pick this week with the Ravens set with a 29.0-point implied team total but he isn’t cheap and will bring up the ownership of any lineup including him in this game stack. Zay Flowers has the better matchup anyways, as the Commanders remain just 26th in EPA per dropback and will likely push the Ravens into more dropbacks (either as a planned method of attack or through gameflow) in this spot. Flowers can go silent for weeks at a time, but he has an elite 26% target share and is coming off a massive game against the Bengals where he saw 12 targets and went for 111 yards.
Rashod Bateman ($4,100 – 4 receptions, 58 yards in Week 5) is another name to consider and if you wanted to fully fade the Ravens big stars, that would up your uniqueness. The likelihood of both Henry and Flowers busting seems relatively small however so while he is expensive, I’d much rather just pay up for Flowers if we’re fading Henry, given how much leverage we’ll have if the Ravens RB fails to deliver a TD or another 100-yard game this Sunday.
Quarterback
Will Levis ($4,800)
Levis practiced in full early in the week and seems almost certain to start this game for the Titans. There is a little risk in putting Levis in your lineups this week (re-injury, poor performance, etc.) but the upside is legitimate. The Colts just allowed 344 yards and 8.15 yards per attempt to Trevor Lawrence last week and have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing QB on the season.
What makes this even more intriguing for DFS purposes is Levis’ price which is now under 5k and the fact his top receivers are all still well under $6,000. We’ve seen him and DeAndre Hopkins go off in the past (see below) and with Hopkins now another week removed from a knee injury suffered in preseason, we could certainly see some more explosive play from him in this spot –– a factor that only adds to Levis’ upside. It’s a high-risk, high-reward kind of spot, but if you’re looking to build around a cheap QB-WR combo this week, Tennessee is the spot to look.
Running Back
High End: James Conner ($6,800)
If you’re looking for a cheaper option off of the top RBs then James Conner makes plenty of sense as a pivot. He’s averaging a stout 16.6 carries and 75.8 yards per game, and has little competition for early down work, as Arizona doesn’t seem interested in seeing what it has in rookie Trey Benson. Green Bay is also not the worst matchup on the slate for Conner as it tends to play at a fast pace and ranks just 23rd in success rate against the run.
I expect Green Bay to put up points in this spot, and while that will force the Cardinals to play fast, it doesn’t mean they’ll necessarily abandon the run (10th in run rate). Conner could certainly emulate a little of what Kyen Williams (22-101-1) managed to achieve against Green Bay in this spot last week (in a game where the Rams trailed for most of the second half), and if he does will be one of the values of the week given his sub-$7,000 salary.
Low End: Javonte Williams ($5,500)
Williams’ price remains low, but it’s not due to poor usage, or performance. The Broncos’ lead back is becoming a great PPR producer, having averaged 26 yards receiving and around 3.2 catches per game through five weeks. With injuries taking out some of his competition for carries, Williams has also seen his usage go up lately as he’s averaged 14.5 carries over the last two games and has a 52% carry rate over that span.
His lack of TDs on the season is concerning but he had multiple chances to score last week and figures to positively regress in that area at some point. The Chargers aren’t the greatest matchup on paper, but I expect both of these offenses to be somewhat conservative, with the Broncos likely to rely on high-percentage throws and on Williams’ versatility to gain yards after the catch. As long as his price remains under $6,000, Williams is going to be a weekly buy and could surprise in this spot with the Broncos at home.
Wide Receiver
High End: Jayden Reed ($7,000)
The Packers’ passing game is in another good spot this week against a Cardinals defense that is 27th in EPA per dropback. The target share for the Packers WRs was messy to project to begin the year but it’s become quite clear that Jayden Reed is the Alpha of this group. On top of averaging 19.5 FPTS per game on the season, Reed has now seen a target share of 25% or better in two of his last three games, and is also averaging 22 rush yards per game (13.8 yards per carry); which ups his weekly TD probability (he’s already scored once on the ground this season).
Reed’s a unique weapon, period, and with Jordan Love another week removed from an early season knee injury, I expect this Packers offense to keep improving from an efficiency perspective. With a weaker defense on the slate in Arizona, it makes perfect sense to build around Reed this week, who gives you exposure to the Packers, who come into this game with a 26.0-point implied team total –– the fourth-highest on the slate.
Low End: DeAndre Hopkins ($5,100)
The Colts’ defense has been horrendous for much of the season. They’ve allowed 7.9 yards per attempt (second-worst in the league) and have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs on the season. Hopkins has struggled along with the entire Titans offense, but with the team getting Will Levis back in the fold, who is a superior downfield passer to Mason Rudolph, Hopkins’ upside in this matchup is far better than it would have been otherwise.
The former Texan has started the season slow, after suffering a knee injury in training camp, but has already posted a 19.1 FPTS back in Week 3, and had a couple of monster games with Levis last season. He’s also regularly torched the Colts, averaging 6.0 receptions for 84 yards and 0.5 TDs, per game, against them for his career. There is no doubt this Titans offense carries a ton of risk, but with Hopkins and Levis’ prices so cheap they both make sense as value options this week who are capable of providing 4x or better returns against this Colts secondary.
Tight End
Hayden Hurst ($2,600)
If you are targeting one of the more popular games this week (WAS-BAL, GB-ARZ, or DET-DAL) then you’ll likely need a punt play somewhere to stack the stars from those games properly. As usual, the week-to-week divergence at TE offers us some good potential to save cash and potentially hit on a 5x return from a very low-owned play. Hayden Hurst hasn’t had the greatest start to the season, but working in this Chargers offense means there will be weeks when no one catches more than three passes. Hurst has at least kept a steady target share in the 10-12% range and encouragingly has been a red zone target for the Chargers, receiving end zone targets from Justin Herbert in Week 1 and Week 4.
This week he’ll face a Broncos team with standout edge corners who tend to funnel passes more into the middle of the field. Hurst probably isn’t going to replicate Brock Bowers’ 97-yard game against Denver last week, but he could emulate his red zone usage and bring in his first TD of the season. Either way, the matchup suggests the Chargers should look Hurst’s way at some point in this matchup, making him an intriguing punt play at just $2,600 this week; and a player you can almost be assured of getting at under 3% ownership in bigger GPPs.
Defense/Special Teams
Buccaneers DST ($2,600)
The Buccaneers have not been a great DST this season for fantasy (5.0 FPTS per game) but they have been good at getting pressure lately (10 sacks in two games) and face a Saints team that is starting a mid-round draft pick at QB this week in Spencer Rattler ($4,000). The Buccaneers have had issues against the run this season but they stiffened up in that regard last week against the Falcons (4.1 yards per carry against) and should be able to stack the box as much as they please with no Derek Carr.
This pick is as much a bet against a rookie QB having success right off the bat as it is taking a shot with a potentially underpriced unit. The Buccaneers come in at just $2,600 this week, and while I expect them to get some heat given that Rattler is in, I also wouldn’t expect huge amounts of ownership as the spread for this game is still at just 3.5 (although it has moved significantly towards TB). Either way, with the other cheap DSTs in nowhere near as good a spot as Tampa, taking the Bucs at $2,600 makes sense, even if it causes your overall ownership to rise a little.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an e
