In Week 5, the most popular picks against the spread were the same in both categories that we break down: Most Popular by Total Handle and Most Popular by Number of Bets. One team is featured among both groups in Week 6, but that’s it.
Below, you’ll find the top three teams for each group. The breakdown for the one team that pops up on both lists will be in the Most Popular by Total Handle portion of this article.
Most Popular by Total Handle
No. 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: New Orleans Saints
Opening Line: +3
Current Line: -3.5
This has been a massive underdog-to-favorite swing for Tampa. With that being the case, it may be a bit harder to attack them at -3.5.
Taking the Buccaneers ATS was the sharp play initially, given they’ve seen 85% of the game’s spread handle on 78% of the spread bets. However, it’s unclear if that lean is primarily built on when Tampa was a dog.
No. 2: Detroit Lions
Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
Opening Line: -3
Current Line: -3
The Lions have similar splits to Tampa, but the spread for DET-DAL has only fluctuated between 3-even and 3.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook. That makes it easier to grasp where the sharps lean here.
Seventy-two percent of the spread bets for this game have gone toward Detroit. Those picks have accounted for 88% of this game’s spread handle.
No. 3: Chicago Bears
Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Opening Line: -1
Current Line: -1.5
This spread has bumped up as far as -2.5, yet it has settled back down to show just a half-point difference from the opening line.
Like the Lions and Bucs, the sharps seems to be leaning with Chicago. Seventy-three percent of the spread bets have been cast in Chicago’s favor, and those bets have accounted for 80% of this game’s spread handle.
Most Popular by Number of Bets
No. 1: Washington Commanders
Opponent: Baltimore Ravens
Opening Line: +6.5
Current Line: +7
As we shift gears, we find that Washington is not both a public and sharp play. Despite accounting for 72% of the spread bets, Commanders bettors have only made up 66% of the spread handle for this game.
The spread did dip down to 5.5 at one point. But the boost to +7 only helps bettors who are considering backing this public play, rather than make things easier for the less-popular option.
No. 2: Houston Texans
Opponent: New England Patriots
Opening Line: -6.5
Current Line: -6.5
This game’s spread did bump up to 7.5 at one point, but it has since settled back in at 6.5.
Similar to the Commanders’ play above, this limited movement helps an already popular play. The public is with the Texans, with Houston picks making up 77% of the spread bets for this game. However, those plays only make up 62% of the spread handle.
That means 23% of the spread bets and 38% of the spread handle has gone in the Patriots’ favor.
No. 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
