Last week my best bet was Washington to take down a highly ranked Michigan team in Seattle, and that’s exactly what the Huskies did. But it’s a new week and now Washington has to head back out east after a huge win to face a hungry Iowa team that just got smashed by Ohio State. It sets up the perfect spot to back the Hawkeyes as short home favorites. Let’s break it down below.
Washington Huskies at Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa ML (-130) 1.5-units
Saturday (12pm ET)
Two very good teams meet on Saturday afternoon in Iowa City, but the price is too short for the Hawkeyes at home given the situational spot for each team. Washington was my largest bet to date of the college football season on Saturday night. The Huskies were off a bad loss the Friday night before, in a game they completely outplayed Rutgers in New Jersey, but barely lost the game. It set up a terrific spot for Washington to bounce back and defeated an overrated Michigan team, and get just a bit of revenge for last season’s National Championship Game.
Now, off the high of taking down the Wolverines, the Huskies have to haul off of another long road trip, this time with a noon eastern kick. I expect Iowa to be the toughest defense Washington has seen so far this season, especially in a big home game off a loss to the Buckeyes. Iowa actually hung tough for a half with Ohio State, as the score was just 7-0 at halftime. Limiting Ohio State on the road like that shows just how elite the Hawkeyes can be on defense at times. Ultimately, the Buckeyes broke the game open, winning 35-7. But it sets up a spot we should see Iowa completely locked in for this game.
Expect Iowa’s defense to rise up to the occasion at home against Washington’s passing attack, which was crucial in exposing Michigan last week. Look for the key to this game to be Iowa moving the ball on the ground. The Hawkeyes rank 11th in the nation, rushing for 219 yards per game — and that includes getting held to 116 by Ohio State. Iowa should pound it against a middle of the pack Washington run defense, and get back on track with a home victory.
I like that as of Thursday afternoon, the public seems to be backing Washington to win this game after seeing the results against Michigan on Saturday, while sharper wagers are coming in on the Hawkeyes. According to the betting splits on DK Network, 65% of the moneyline bets are on the Huskies, but despite the Hawkeyes having only 35% of the tickets, they make up 58% of the money.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
