Penn State makes the cross country haul for a Big Ten showdown against Southern California on Saturday afternoon. The 5-0 Nittany Lions moved up in the AP Top-25 poll to No. 4 in the nation, while a bad loss to Minnesota dropped the Trojans out of the rankings. So is the unranked home underdog in position to claim a top-five win? It just might be.
Penn State Nittany Lions at USC Trojans
USC +5.5 (-110) 1-unit
Saturday (3:30pm ET)
This is a very interesting matchup on paper, as these teams don’t appear all that much different. Both the Trojans and Nittany Lions boast top-10 pass defenses in terms of yards allowed, but it’s USC that’s been far more efficient moving the ball through the air. The Trojans rank 18th nationally in passing yards, and have racked up just over 300 per game in the air in home games. Penn State ranks just above average passing the ball.
Where Penn State should hold an advantage is in the running game. I’m not convinced it’s a very large edge just on offense, as PSU does average over 214 yards per game on the ground, good for 14th in the country. USC is slightly below average on the ground, but the Trojans have had far more success at home, rushing for 207 yards per game. While that makes the gap appear minimal, the gap in rushing defense is large. Penn State is elite, and USC has allowed teams like Michigan and Minnesota to run all over them.
But USC should be as sharp for this game as it will all season, coming off a bad loss at Minnesota in which it was a huge favorite. Meanwhile, Penn State hasn’t exactly been winning with style points. After handling West Virginia, PSU struggled with Bowling Green, in what was ultimately a one-score game. Since conference play got underway, Penn State has home victories over Illinois and UCLA, but failed to cover either game.
No doubt Penn State is the better team here, but it is going to be challenged on the road. PSU should also stick to running the ball here to find success, making it tougher to open it up by a wide margin — particularly when USC likely sees its edge coming through the air, so the Trojans are a threat to hang points on the board.
The betting splits on DK Network show that this number has actually been dropping in favor of the home dog, despite 77% of the handle on Penn State, which is always an interesting indicator. Can USC get a much needed victory to save its season? I’m not sure. But I am confident we see the Trojans play one of their better games of the season, and I think that’ll keep it close enough to have a chance.
Place your College Football bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
