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Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers
Team Total: Tigers Over 3.5 Runs (+135)
As I write this Thursday morning, we don’t have an announcement of who the Tigers starter is. It’s hard to give a side on this game without that information, so I’ll write up the over on the Tigers team total. They’ll be facing Tanner Bibee, someone they’re very familiar with. Bibee was able to shut out the Tigers earlier in the series, going 4.2 innings. However, during the regular season, it was a different story. Through 22 innings, Bibee allowed 11 runs on 19 hits. The biggest issue for Bibee has been against lefties. He has a .336 wOBA against them with 14 of the 22 home runs he’s allowed. This Tigers team is full of left-handed bats and should have six of them in the lineup. Bibee’s two main pitches are a four seam and a slider. The Tigers expected lineup for tonight has a combined .362 wOBA and a .336 wOBA against those.
Riley Green Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBI (+120)
Going with that theme of Bibee struggling against lefties, I’m looking to take Greene to go over his H/R/RBI total. I love getting this at +120, as Greene has done well against Bibee’s main pitches. He has a .380 wOBA and a .255 ISO against the four seam and a .337 wOBA and a .282 ISO against the slider. It’s a short sample, but Greene has gone 4-for-13 in his career against Bibee with a double. With the way the Tigers are hitting right now, I think they’re going to have Bibee’s numbers tonight.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
